Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutRichie IncognitoGFoot· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableC.J. Ah YouDEAnkle· Limited
- DNPJohn GrecoGNot Injury Related
- ProbableDonnie AveryWRShoulder· Limited
- ProbableClifton RyanDTIllness· Full
- ProbableJames HallDEGroin· Full
- ProbableJustin KingCBGroin· Full
Lions
- OutJason HunterDEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableCalvin JohnsonWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJerome FeltonRBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMatthew StaffordQBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableSammie Lee HillDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableZack FollettLBIllness· Limited
- ProbableGrady JacksonDTKnee· DNP
- ProbableTurk McBrideDEHead· Limited
- ProbableCasey FitzsimmonsTEEar· Full
- ProbableDewayne WhiteDEHamstring· Full
- ProbableErnie SimsLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableGosder CherilusTShoulder· Full
- ProbableJordon DizonLBFoot· Full
- ProbableKo SimpsonSHamstring· Full
- ProbableTerrelle SmithRBIllness· Full
Win probability
- Lions
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:50 | 12 | 58 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DET | Q1 3:57 | 13 | 73 | Safety | 3–2 |
| DET | Q2 12:07 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 3–2 |
| LA | Q2 7:54 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 3–2 |
| DET | Q2 4:29 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–2 |
| LA | Q2 3:01 | 8 | 96 | Touchdown | 10–2 |
| DET | Q2 0:54 | 7 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 10–2 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 10–2 |
| DET | Q3 11:52 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–2 |
| LA | Q3 10:18 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–2 |
| DET | Q3 8:47 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–2 |
| LA | Q3 7:18 | 9 | 35 | Turnover | 10–2 |
| DET | Q3 3:46 | 10 | 82 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LA | Q4 13:51 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 10–10 |
| DET | Q4 10:08 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LA | Q4 6:54 | 7 | 53 | Punt | 10–10 |
| DET | Q4 4:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LA | Q4 2:26 | 5 | 49 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| DET | Q4 1:38 | 6 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 17–10 |
| LA | Q4 0:56 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 17–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 14/33 | 168 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 2 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Casey Fitzsimmons | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.98
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.