Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 14/33 | 168 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 2 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Casey Fitzsimmons | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.98
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.