2009 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

20·30

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NO -12.5

Total

51

Model margin

+2.6est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSaints
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.118
  • 40.6%Success rate48.1%
  • -0.092EPA / dropback+0.231
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.028
  • 10.9%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -3.62CPOE+6.47
  • 37.2%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.39Points / drive2.36
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NO
CARQ1 15:00275Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 14:0038Punt7–0
CARQ1 12:14622Punt7–0
NOQ1 7:4710Turnover7–0
CARQ1 7:39211Touchdown14–0
NOQ1 6:531474Field goal14–3
CARQ2 13:4131Turnover14–3
NOQ2 11:4821Turnover14–3
CARQ2 10:56931Field goal17–3
NOQ2 5:3047Punt17–3
CARQ2 3:13613Punt17–3
NOQ2 1:431074Field goal17–6
CARQ2 0:0400End of half17–6
NOQ3 15:00480Touchdown17–13
CARQ3 13:141873Field goal20–13
NOQ3 3:27783Touchdown20–20
CARQ4 15:00739Punt20–20
NOQ4 11:191386Field goal20–23
CARQ4 4:36732Turnover20–23
NOQ4 2:4332Punt20–29
CARQ4 2:171-1Opp touchdown20–30
CARQ4 2:00975Turnover on downs20–30
NOQ4 0:1800End of half20–30

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme17/3020100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams211497.12
Jonathan Stewart13241.80
Tyrell Sutton3155.00
Jake Delhomme2-6-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith48640
Gary Barnidge34460
Dwayne Jarrett47300
Kenny Moore11220
Jonathan Stewart11140
DeAngelo Williams25120
Tyrell Sutton11110
Mike Goodson1120
Jeff King0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees24/3533011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas13503.81
Mike Bell5173.40
Reggie Bush2168.00
Drew Brees242.00
Devery Henderson1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Meachem56981
Devery Henderson33930
Marques Colston16450
Reggie Bush79370
Pierre Thomas55310
Jeremy Shockey35260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.56