Closing spread
NO -12.5
Total
51
Model margin
+2.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.118
- 40.6%Success rate48.1%
- -0.092EPA / dropback+0.231
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.028
- 10.9%Explosive rate10.3%
- -3.62CPOE+6.47
- 37.2%Third-down rate45.6%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.39Points / drive2.36
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 17/30 | 201 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 21 | 149 | 7.1 | 2 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 13 | 24 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Tyrell Sutton | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 4 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Dwayne Jarrett | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyrell Sutton | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/35 | 330 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Mike Bell | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Meachem | 5 | 6 | 98 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 3 | 3 | 93 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 1 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 7 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.56