2009 · Week 9

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

21·24

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

Jacksonville Municipal Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

JAX -7

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.123EPA / play+0.008
  • 36.4%Success rate43.2%
  • -0.113EPA / dropback-0.010
  • -0.139EPA / rush+0.036
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -4.70CPOE+1.59
  • 27.1%Third-down rate46.1%
  • 56.9%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.59
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.2 points. JAX are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5KC @ JAX28–31JAX
2023 · W2KC @ JAX17–9KC
2022 · playoffsJAX @ KC20–27KC
2022 · W10JAX @ KC17–27KC
2019 · W1KC @ JAX40–26KC
2018 · W5JAX @ KC14–30KC
2016 · W9JAX @ KC14–19KC
2013 · W1KC @ JAX28–2KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:47529Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 9:54979Touchdown3–7
KCQ1 4:3336Punt3–7
JAXQ1 3:301061Missed field goal3–7
KCQ2 12:3839Punt3–7
JAXQ2 10:45421Punt3–7
KCQ2 8:0737Punt3–7
JAXQ2 6:24311Turnover3–7
KCQ2 4:57417Field goal6–7
JAXQ2 2:38584Touchdown6–14
KCQ2 1:02639Missed field goal6–14
KCQ3 15:0033Punt6–14
JAXQ3 12:49930Punt6–14
KCQ3 9:01625Punt6–14
JAXQ3 6:09968Field goal6–17
KCQ3 0:47736Punt6–17
JAXQ4 12:52934Punt6–17
KCQ4 8:383-4Punt6–17
JAXQ4 7:07522Touchdown6–24
KCQ4 4:26671Touchdown13–24
JAXQ4 2:3200Touchdown13–24
KCQ4 2:30963Touchdown21–24
JAXQ4 1:01211End of half21–24

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel23/3926220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles6366.00
Kolby Smith4174.30
Dantrell Savage242.00
Matt Cassel231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe410740
Lance Long811740
Chris Chambers34702
Jamaal Charles34190
Mark Bradley14120
Dantrell Savage1180
Leonard Pope1150
Kolby Smith1140
Sean Ryan0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard18/2726410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew29973.31
David Garrard9293.20
Rashad Jennings22914.51
Mike Thomas11818.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Sims-Walker681471
Torry Holt49370
Maurice Jones-Drew34370
Jarett Dillard11330
Rashad Jennings1190
Marcedes Lewis1230
Mike Thomas11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

4.59%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.68
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.25