Closing spread
JAX -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.123EPA / play+0.008
- 36.4%Success rate43.2%
- -0.113EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.139EPA / rush+0.036
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- -4.70CPOE+1.59
- 27.1%Third-down rate46.1%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.20Points / drive1.59
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. JAX are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 23/39 | 262 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kolby Smith | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Dantrell Savage | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Lance Long | 8 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 4 | 70 | 2 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Dantrell Savage | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kolby Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Sean Ryan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 18/27 | 264 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 29 | 97 | 3.3 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 1 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Sims-Walker | 6 | 8 | 147 | 1 |
| Torry Holt | 4 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.25