2009 · Week 9
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -9
Total
41
Model margin
+3.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.047EPA / play+0.041
- 41.0%Success rate43.4%
- +0.023EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.036
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.16CPOE-1.75
- 39.7%Third-down rate42.8%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 1.38Points / drive1.97
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. ATL are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 15/22 | 196 | 1 | 1 |
| Todd Collins | 4/5 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Jason Campbell | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Sellers | 3 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 5 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Marko Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Malcolm Kelly | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Devin Thomas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 17/24 | 135 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 18 | 166 | 9.2 | 2 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.54