2009 · Week 9

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

17·31

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -9

Total

41

Model margin

+3.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.047EPA / play+0.041
  • 41.0%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.023EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.168EPA / rush-0.036
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.16CPOE-1.75
  • 39.7%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.97
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.3 points. ATL are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4WAS @ ATL27–34ATL
2024 · W17ATL @ WAS24–30WAS
2023 · W6WAS @ ATL24–16WAS
2022 · W12ATL @ WAS13–19WAS
2021 · W4WAS @ ATL34–30WAS
2018 · W9ATL @ WAS38–14ATL
2015 · W5WAS @ ATL19–25ATL
2013 · W15WAS @ ATL26–27ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001065Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 9:183-7Punt0–7
ATLQ1 7:2046Turnover0–7
WASQ1 5:07617Opp touchdown0–14
WASQ1 2:47613Punt0–14
ATLQ2 14:39730Punt0–14
WASQ2 9:45652Field goal3–14
ATLQ2 5:56561Touchdown3–21
WASQ2 3:363-6Punt3–21
ATLQ2 2:171346Field goal3–24
WASQ3 15:001385Touchdown10–24
ATLQ3 7:1039Punt10–24
WASQ3 4:551487Touchdown17–24
ATLQ4 13:05373Touchdown17–31
WASQ4 11:231038Turnover on downs17–31
ATLQ4 5:5348Punt17–31
WASQ4 3:15533Turnover on downs17–31
ATLQ4 2:27311End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell15/2219611
Todd Collins4/51200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ladell Betts15704.71
Jason Campbell5408.00
Rock Cartwright7162.30
Santana Moss166.00
Clinton Portis441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Sellers33560
Santana Moss58470
Antwaan Randle El33280
Fred Davis24260
Ladell Betts11230
Marko Mitchell22220
Malcolm Kelly1240
Todd Yoder1131
Devin Thomas0200
Rock Cartwright11-10

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan17/2413511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner181669.22
Aaron Stecker263.00
Matt Ryan561.20
Roddy White122.00
Eric Weems111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez56411
Roddy White35270
Aaron Stecker33220
Michael Turner23140
Marty Booker1290
Brian Finneran1190
Michael Jenkins1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.54