2009 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

19·28

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

ATL -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.041EPA / play-0.058
  • 43.4%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback-0.092
  • -0.036EPA / rush-0.022
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.9%
  • -1.75CPOE-3.62
  • 42.8%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.39
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
CARQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:35552Field goal3–0
CARQ1 11:16985Touchdown3–7
ATLQ1 6:15941Punt3–7
CARQ1 2:121280Touchdown3–14
ATLQ2 12:261572Touchdown10–14
CARQ2 5:56419Punt10–14
ATLQ2 3:4010Turnover10–14
CARQ2 3:32630Touchdown10–21
ATLQ2 1:0830Punt10–21
CARQ2 0:3400End of half10–21
ATLQ3 15:001174Field goal13–21
CARQ3 9:21947Missed field goal13–21
ATLQ3 5:551474Touchdown19–21
CARQ4 13:44542Punt19–21
ATLQ4 11:161068Missed field goal19–21
CARQ4 6:35412Punt19–21
ATLQ4 3:5910Turnover19–21
CARQ4 3:45351Touchdown19–28
ATLQ4 2:07519Turnover on downs19–28
CARQ4 1:3546Turnover on downs19–28

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/4122412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner911112.30
Matt Ryan242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White711980
Tony Gonzalez611670
Michael Jenkins49150
Justin Peelle23121
Keith Zinger0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme15/2419520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams19924.80
Jonathan Stewart11827.52
Jake Delhomme4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Muhsin Muhammad68910
Steve Smith44342
DeAngelo Williams11300
Jeff King23220
Dante Rosario13110
Dwayne Jarrett1170
Jonathan Stewart0200
Gary Barnidge0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.8%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.87