Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.058
- 43.4%Success rate40.6%
- +0.093EPA / dropback-0.092
- -0.036EPA / rush-0.022
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.9%
- -1.75CPOE-3.62
- 42.8%Third-down rate37.2%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.97Points / drive1.39
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/41 | 224 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 9 | 111 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 7 | 11 | 98 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 11 | 67 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 4 | 9 | 15 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Keith Zinger | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 15/24 | 195 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 19 | 92 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 11 | 82 | 7.5 | 2 |
| Jake Delhomme | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 6 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 4 | 34 | 2 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Dwayne Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.87