Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+5.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.067
- 39.6%Success rate37.0%
- -0.064EPA / dropback-0.055
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.1%
- +0.30CPOE-2.69
- 37.3%Third-down rate29.4%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.57Points / drive1.54
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. SF are 10-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 29/52 | 307 | 0 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 20 | 41 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 8 | 9 | 120 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 7 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 7 | 14 | 48 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 16/23 | 118 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 25 | 104 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.63