2009 · Week 10

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

6·10

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+5.6est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge map49ers
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.067
  • 39.6%Success rate37.0%
  • -0.064EPA / dropback-0.055
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.087
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +0.30CPOE-2.69
  • 37.3%Third-down rate29.4%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.54
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–8 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. SF are 10-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17CHI @ SF38–42SF
2024 · W14CHI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W1SF @ CHI10–19CHI
2021 · W8SF @ CHI33–22SF
2018 · W16CHI @ SF14–9CHI
2017 · W13SF @ CHI15–14SF
2016 · W13SF @ CHI6–26CHI
2015 · W13SF @ CHI26–20SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–SF
CHIQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:241038Missed field goal0–0
CHIQ1 7:4936Punt0–0
SFQ1 5:4239Punt0–0
CHIQ1 3:461888Turnover0–0
SFQ2 9:40938Turnover0–0
CHIQ2 3:58447Turnover0–6
SFQ2 2:07114Touchdown0–7
CHIQ2 2:031057Field goal3–7
SFQ2 0:0200End of half3–7
SFQ3 15:0035Punt3–7
CHIQ3 12:5836Turnover3–7
SFQ3 11:3354Turnover on downs3–7
CHIQ3 9:29434Field goal6–7
SFQ3 7:27427Punt6–7
CHIQ3 4:26815Punt6–7
SFQ3 1:2935Punt6–7
CHIQ4 14:4433Turnover6–7
SFQ4 13:19633Field goal6–10
CHIQ4 10:1132Punt6–10
SFQ4 9:011243Punt6–10
CHIQ4 2:471588Turnover6–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler29/5230705

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte20412.00
Jay Cutler122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Forte891200
Greg Olsen710750
Devin Hester714480
Earl Bennett35270
Johnny Knox26200
Devin Aromashodu11100
Desmond Clark1270
Kellen Davis0300

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith16/2311801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore251044.21
Alex Smith221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree47480
Josh Morgan35240
Frank Gore44210
Vernon Davis35160
Jason Hill1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.0%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.63