2009 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

10·27

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -17

Total

47.5

Model margin

+9.5est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • -0.169EPA / play+0.085
  • 39.2%Success rate45.1%
  • -0.183EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.130
  • 7.6%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -6.85CPOE+5.77
  • 35.8%Third-down rate45.4%
  • 46.3%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
  • 1.11Points / drive2.31
  • 3.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
MINQ1 15:00971Field goal0–3
DETQ1 9:181139Missed field goal0–3
MINQ1 3:30545Turnover0–3
DETQ1 0:30312Punt0–3
MINQ2 14:474-1Punt0–3
DETQ2 13:303-2Punt0–3
MINQ2 12:03467Touchdown0–10
DETQ2 10:4838Punt0–10
MINQ2 8:34969Turnover on downs0–10
DETQ2 4:2133Punt0–10
MINQ2 2:39252Turnover0–10
DETQ2 2:041065Field goal3–10
MINQ2 0:0400End of half3–10
DETQ3 15:0018Turnover3–10
MINQ3 14:40228Touchdown3–17
DETQ3 14:181678Touchdown10–17
MINQ3 8:1449Punt10–17
DETQ3 6:4539Punt10–17
MINQ3 4:46520Punt10–17
DETQ3 1:5832Punt10–17
MINQ3 0:23461Touchdown10–24
DETQ4 13:20414Punt10–24
MINQ4 11:44776Field goal10–27
DETQ4 7:33722Turnover on downs10–27
MINQ4 5:3731Punt10–27
DETQ4 4:381039Turnover on downs10–27
MINQ4 2:253-2End of half10–27

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford29/5122410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith12554.60
Matthew Stafford4287.00
Maurice Morris6101.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson813840
Dennis Northcutt68480
Will Heller44331
Brandon Pettigrew26230
Bryant Johnson26170
Kevin Smith35100
Maurice Morris1540
Derrick Williams2230

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre20/2934410
Tarvaris Jackson0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson181337.42
Chester Taylor7162.30
Percy Harvin177.00
Jeff Dugan100.00
Brett Favre1-1-1.00
Tarvaris Jackson3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sidney Rice792010
Percy Harvin34530
Visanthe Shiancoe34430
Bernard Berrian38220
Adrian Peterson23100
Jeff Dugan1181
Chester Taylor1170
Greg Lewis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +176.8%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%2.6%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

73.2%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+9.47