Closing spread
MIN -17
Total
47.5
Model margin
+9.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.169EPA / play+0.085
- 39.2%Success rate45.1%
- -0.183EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.130
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- -6.85CPOE+5.77
- 35.8%Third-down rate45.4%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
- 1.11Points / drive2.31
- 3.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 29/51 | 224 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 8 | 13 | 84 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 4 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Derrick Williams | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/29 | 344 | 1 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 18 | 133 | 7.4 | 2 |
| Chester Taylor | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Dugan | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 7 | 9 | 201 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 3 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeff Dugan | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.2%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+9.47