2009 · Week 10

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

24·22

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYJ -6.5

Total

41

Model margin

+6.6est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapJets
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.060
  • 43.2%Success rate39.7%
  • -0.010EPA / dropback-0.151
  • +0.036EPA / rush+0.011
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.59CPOE-5.62
  • 46.1%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.61
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15NYJ @ JAX20–48JAX
2024 · W15NYJ @ JAX32–25NYJ
2022 · W16JAX @ NYJ19–3JAX
2021 · W16JAX @ NYJ21–26NYJ
2019 · W8NYJ @ JAX15–29JAX
2018 · W4NYJ @ JAX12–31JAX
2017 · W4JAX @ NYJ20–23NYJ
2015 · W9JAX @ NYJ23–28NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 14:36555Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 11:56730Field goal7–3
JAXQ1 8:21936Missed field goal7–3
NYJQ1 3:05646Touchdown7–10
JAXQ1 1:081170Touchdown14–10
NYJQ2 10:52711Punt14–10
JAXQ2 7:581086Touchdown21–10
NYJQ2 2:44653Field goal21–13
JAXQ2 0:3613End of half21–13
JAXQ3 15:0033Punt21–13
NYJQ3 14:0233Punt21–13
JAXQ3 12:333-4Punt21–13
NYJQ3 10:3220Turnover21–13
JAXQ3 9:5723Turnover21–13
NYJQ3 9:13242Turnover21–13
JAXQ3 8:1139Punt21–13
NYJQ3 6:511360Field goal21–16
JAXQ4 14:3937Punt21–16
NYJQ4 12:411677Touchdown21–22
JAXQ4 5:04982Field goal24–22

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard16/2622110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew241235.11
David Garrard6111.81
Rashad Jennings252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcedes Lewis24580
Mike Sims-Walker37491
Mike Thomas44460
Torry Holt26240
Maurice Jones-Drew22220
Zach Miller11110
Jarett Dillard1170

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez16/3021212
Braylon Edwards0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones21773.71
Shonn Greene7263.70
Dustin Keller177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braylon Edwards35790
Jerricho Cotchery611681
Dustin Keller69580
David Clowney1470
Thomas Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.3%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.57