Closing spread
NYJ -6.5
Total
41
Model margin
+6.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.060
- 43.2%Success rate39.7%
- -0.010EPA / dropback-0.151
- +0.036EPA / rush+0.011
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.59CPOE-5.62
- 46.1%Third-down rate37.4%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.59Points / drive1.61
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 16/26 | 221 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 24 | 123 | 5.1 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 3 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Mike Thomas | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Torry Holt | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 16/30 | 212 | 1 | 2 |
| Braylon Edwards | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 21 | 77 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Shonn Greene | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braylon Edwards | 3 | 5 | 79 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 6 | 11 | 68 | 1 |
| Dustin Keller | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.57