Closing spread
OAK -1
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. OAK are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 19/34 | 216 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 18 | 103 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Kolby Smith | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 11 | 91 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Lance Long | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Brad Cottam | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dantrell Savage | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.90
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.