Closing spread
OAK -1
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutDavid HerronLBKnee· DNP
- ProbableChris ChambersWRFoot· Full
- ProbableJon McGrawSThigh· Full
- ProbableJovan BelcherLBHead· Full
- ProbableMike VrabelLBHip· Full
- ProbableWade SmithCAnkle· Full
Raiders
- OutJavon WalkerWRHamstring· DNP
- OutNick MillerWRShin· DNP
- OutRicky BrownLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableGreg EllisDEKnee· Limited
- ProbableChaz SchilensWRFoot· Full
- ProbableCornell GreenTCalf· Full
- ProbableDarren McFaddenRBKnee· Full
- ProbableRobert GalleryGFibula· Full
- ProbableTony StewartTEChest· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 12:42 | 3 | -2 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 11:33 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 8:05 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 7:13 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 6:16 | 4 | 36 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LV | Q1 4:49 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:46 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| KC | Q1 2:10 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LV | Q1 0:20 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–10 |
| KC | Q2 14:07 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 12:25 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 10–10 |
| KC | Q2 9:40 | 6 | 67 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| LV | Q2 6:48 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–10 |
| KC | Q2 5:33 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LV | Q2 3:51 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 13–10 |
| KC | Q2 1:47 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LV | Q2 1:15 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 13–10 |
| KC | Q2 0:44 | 4 | 18 | End of half | 13–10 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 28 | Missed field goal | 13–10 |
| LV | Q3 10:43 | 9 | 35 | Missed field goal | 13–10 |
| KC | Q3 5:56 | 7 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 13–10 |
| LV | Q3 3:22 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 13–10 |
| KC | Q3 2:18 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| LV | Q3 2:13 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–10 |
| KC | Q3 0:40 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LV | Q4 14:42 | 6 | 30 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| KC | Q4 11:12 | 8 | 20 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| LV | Q4 6:17 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 16–10 |
| KC | Q4 4:38 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 16–10 |
| LV | Q4 1:53 | 6 | 54 | Turnover | 16–10 |
| KC | Q4 0:30 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 19/34 | 216 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 18 | 103 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Kolby Smith | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 11 | 91 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Lance Long | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Brad Cottam | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dantrell Savage | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.90
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.