Closing spread
NO -14
Total
50.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutJabari GreerCBGroin· DNP
- OutLance MooreWRAnkle· DNP
- OutSedrick EllisDTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableDarren SharperSKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJonathan GoodwinCAnkle· Limited
- ProbableZach StriefTIllness· Limited
- ProbableGarrett HartleyKleft Ankle· Full
- ProbableMarques ColstonWRIllness· Full
- ProbableMarvin MitchellLBFoot· Full
- ProbableScott FujitaLBCalf· Full
Rams
- OutRichie IncognitoGFoot· DNP
- QuestionableC.J. Ah YouDEAnkle· Limited
- ProbableJacob BellGThumb· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. STL are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 41 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 11:57 | 4 | 22 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:13 | 6 | 30 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 6:44 | 13 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 14:14 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 9:23 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 6:51 | 13 | 68 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| NO | Q2 0:55 | 2 | 9 | Punt | 20–14 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| LA | Q3 14:49 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 21–14 |
| NO | Q3 13:09 | 4 | 37 | Turnover | 21–14 |
| LA | Q3 10:57 | 8 | 46 | Field goal | 21–17 |
| NO | Q3 7:08 | 6 | 79 | Turnover | 21–17 |
| LA | Q3 3:33 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 21–17 |
| NO | Q3 1:14 | 7 | 82 | Touchdown | 28–17 |
| LA | Q4 12:15 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 28–17 |
| NO | Q4 10:13 | 8 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 28–17 |
| LA | Q4 7:15 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 28–17 |
| NO | Q4 6:24 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 28–17 |
| LA | Q4 4:25 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 28–23 |
| NO | Q4 2:44 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 28–23 |
| LA | Q4 2:21 | 11 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 28–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 18/26 | 223 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 83 | 13.8 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 41 | 41.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Eckel | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devery Henderson | 4 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 1 | 27 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.81
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.