Closing spread
NO -14
Total
50.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. STL are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 18/26 | 223 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 83 | 13.8 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 41 | 41.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Eckel | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devery Henderson | 4 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 1 | 27 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.81
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.