2009 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

20·31

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -9

Total

46.5

Model margin

+5.2est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.026
  • 40.9%Success rate45.3%
  • -0.082EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.143
  • 7.2%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -1.58CPOE+3.71
  • 34.0%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 46.1%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.75
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
SEAQ1 15:00940Punt0–0
ARIQ1 11:2738Punt0–0
SEAQ1 9:4630Punt0–0
ARIQ1 9:25619Punt0–0
SEAQ1 5:4137Punt0–0
ARIQ1 4:3157Turnover on downs0–0
SEAQ1 2:52684Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 0:2037Punt7–0
SEAQ2 13:52515Punt7–0
ARIQ2 11:3637Punt7–0
SEAQ2 9:56554Touchdown14–0
ARIQ2 8:29756Touchdown14–7
SEAQ2 5:301167Field goal17–7
ARIQ2 1:09681Field goal17–10
ARIQ3 15:001397Touchdown17–17
SEAQ3 8:1336Punt17–17
ARIQ3 6:17419Punt17–17
SEAQ3 3:321555Field goal20–17
ARIQ4 13:02467Touchdown20–24
SEAQ4 11:20533Punt20–24
ARIQ4 9:25685Touchdown20–31
SEAQ4 6:1130Punt20–31
ARIQ4 5:4435Punt20–31
SEAQ4 5:201150Turnover20–31
ARIQ4 3:3137Punt20–31
SEAQ4 3:05761Turnover20–31
ARIQ4 1:5200End of half20–31

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck26/5231512
Seneca Wallace1/11600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett171237.21
Louis Rankin3248.00
Julius Jones2105.00
Matt Hasselbeck273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Houshmandzadeh9171650
Deion Branch48500
John Carlson12311
Justin Forsett58260
Deon Butler37260
Louis Rankin34240
Seneca Wallace1150
Justin Griffith1140
Nate Burleson0500

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner29/3834020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells16855.32
Tim Hightower10373.70
Kurt Warner400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin8101050
Steve Breaston46791
Larry Fitzgerald79731
Chris Wells22320
LaRod Stephens-Howling22220
Tim Hightower55210
Early Doucet1380

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.23