Closing spread
ARI -9
Total
46.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.026
- 40.9%Success rate45.3%
- -0.082EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.143
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.9%
- -1.58CPOE+3.71
- 34.0%Third-down rate36.7%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 1.38Points / drive1.75
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 26/52 | 315 | 1 | 2 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1/1 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 17 | 123 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Louis Rankin | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 9 | 17 | 165 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 4 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 5 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Louis Rankin | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 29/38 | 340 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 16 | 85 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Tim Hightower | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 8 | 10 | 105 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 4 | 6 | 79 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 9 | 73 | 1 |
| Chris Wells | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.23