Closing spread
ARI -9.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. STL are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 15/19 | 203 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 10/14 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 14 | 110 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 14 | 74 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 8 | 9 | 103 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 12 | 87 | 1 |
| Ben Patrick | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
0.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.