Closing spread
ARI -9.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cardinals
- OutChike OkeaforLBBack· DNP
- QuestionableBen PatrickTEKnee· Full
- QuestionableBryant McFaddenCBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableGerald HayesLBBack· Full
- QuestionableKarlos DansbyLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableMichael AdamsCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMike GandyTPelvis· Full
- QuestionableSean MoreyWRHead· Full
- ProbableDeuce LutuiGNot Injury Related· DNP
- ProbableSteve BreastonWRKnee· Limited
- ProbableAdrian WilsonSGroin· Full
- ProbableKenny IwebemaDEKnee· Full
- ProbableReggie WellsGThumb· Full
Rams
- OutC.J. Ah YouDEKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutRichie IncognitoGFoot· DNP
- QuestionableChris LongDEKnee· Limited
- ProbableJames HallDEBack· Limited
- ProbableLeonard LittleDEKnee· Limited
- ProbableClifton RyanDTToe· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. STL are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:31 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 12:20 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 8:44 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 5:28 | 6 | 92 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 2:28 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q1 0:57 | 9 | 90 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| LA | Q2 11:48 | 9 | 45 | Turnover on downs | 14–3 |
| ARI | Q2 7:13 | 9 | 88 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| LA | Q2 2:23 | 7 | 29 | Turnover | 21–3 |
| ARI | Q2 0:47 | 2 | 11 | End of half | 21–3 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–3 |
| ARI | Q3 13:20 | 8 | 47 | Punt | 21–3 |
| LA | Q3 9:11 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 21–3 |
| ARI | Q3 6:29 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–3 |
| LA | Q3 4:49 | 8 | 77 | Field goal | 21–6 |
| ARI | Q3 0:13 | 8 | 32 | Turnover | 21–6 |
| LA | Q4 11:55 | 13 | 44 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| ARI | Q4 7:08 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 21–13 |
| LA | Q4 5:27 | 8 | 69 | Turnover on downs | 21–13 |
| ARI | Q4 3:42 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 21–13 |
| LA | Q4 1:01 | 4 | -4 | Turnover on downs | 21–13 |
| ARI | Q4 0:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 15/19 | 203 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 10/14 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 14 | 110 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 14 | 74 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 8 | 9 | 103 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 12 | 87 | 1 |
| Ben Patrick | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
0.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.