Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play-0.089
- 43.1%Success rate39.6%
- +0.086EPA / dropback-0.064
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.135
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.4%
- +0.05CPOE+0.30
- 37.2%Third-down rate37.3%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.04Points / drive1.57
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 41 points. CHI are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 23/32 | 244 | 2 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 20 | 99 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 1 | 34 | 34.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Eldra Buckley | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 8 | 10 | 107 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Reggie Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 24/43 | 171 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahlil Bell | 4 | 81 | 20.3 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earl Bennett | 5 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 12 | 42 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 4 | 9 | 18 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Johnny Knox | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.11