2009 · Week 11

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

24·20

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBears
  • +0.046EPA / play-0.089
  • 43.1%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.086EPA / dropback-0.064
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.135
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +0.05CPOE+0.30
  • 37.2%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.57
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3PHI @ CHI7–27CHI
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CHI
PHIQ1 15:00868Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 10:5467Punt3–0
PHIQ1 7:32857Touchdown10–0
CHIQ1 2:48730Field goal10–3
PHIQ2 14:45617Punt10–3
CHIQ2 12:02572Field goal10–6
PHIQ2 9:59618Turnover10–6
CHIQ2 7:2743Punt10–6
PHIQ2 5:5515Turnover10–6
CHIQ2 5:471666Field goal10–9
PHIQ2 0:1311End of half10–9
CHIQ3 15:003-12Punt10–9
PHIQ3 13:0533Punt10–9
CHIQ3 12:01420Field goal10–12
PHIQ3 10:26521Punt10–12
CHIQ3 7:1534Punt10–12
PHIQ3 6:23264Touchdown17–12
CHIQ3 5:53655Touchdown17–20
PHIQ3 2:52831Punt17–20
CHIQ4 14:1836Punt17–20
PHIQ4 12:49117Turnover17–20
CHIQ4 12:3837Missed field goal17–20
PHIQ4 11:011162Touchdown24–20
CHIQ4 5:31310Punt24–20
PHIQ4 3:37615Punt24–20
CHIQ4 1:51516Turnover24–20
PHIQ4 0:4500End of half24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb23/3224421
Mike Vick1/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy20995.01
Mike Vick13434.00
DeSean Jackson11010.00
Donovan McNabb451.30
Eldra Buckley100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson8101071
Jeremy Maclin69640
Brent Celek45350
Jason Avant45261
Reggie Brown0100
LeSean McCoy0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler24/4317111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kahlil Bell48120.30
Matt Forte14342.40
Jay Cutler2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Earl Bennett57570
Greg Olsen612420
Matt Forte45200
Devin Hester49180
Kellen Davis22171
Johnny Knox25160
Jason McKie1110
Kahlil Bell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-0.11