Closing spread
PIT -10.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.123
- 44.8%Success rate36.4%
- +0.124EPA / dropback-0.113
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.139
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- +4.22CPOE-4.70
- 40.3%Third-down rate27.1%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.83Points / drive1.20
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 32/42 | 398 | 3 | 2 |
| Charlie Batch | 1/2 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 21 | 80 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 10 | 14 | 128 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 7 | 8 | 95 | 1 |
| Santonio Holmes | 7 | 10 | 86 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Willie Parker | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 15/30 | 248 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kolby Smith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 4 | 6 | 119 | 0 |
| Lance Long | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Mark Bradley | 1 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.44