2009 · Week 11

Final / OT

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

24·27

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -10.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.043EPA / play-0.123
  • 44.8%Success rate36.4%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback-0.113
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.139
  • 10.2%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +4.22CPOE-4.70
  • 40.3%Third-down rate27.1%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.20
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17KC @ PIT29–10KC
2021 · playoffsPIT @ KC21–42KC
2021 · W16PIT @ KC10–36KC
2018 · W2KC @ PIT42–37KC
2017 · W6PIT @ KC19–13PIT
2016 · playoffsPIT @ KC18–16PIT
2016 · W4KC @ PIT14–43PIT
2015 · W7PIT @ KC13–23KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–KC
KCQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 14:4447Punt0–7
KCQ1 12:27419Punt0–7
PITQ1 11:03554Turnover0–7
KCQ1 8:3939Punt0–7
PITQ1 6:531277Field goal3–7
KCQ2 14:50618Punt3–7
PITQ2 11:271095Touchdown10–7
KCQ2 5:323-3Punt10–7
PITQ2 4:16746Touchdown17–7
KCQ2 1:1054Turnover on downs17–7
PITQ3 15:00311Turnover17–7
KCQ3 13:11762Touchdown17–14
PITQ3 10:4839Punt17–14
KCQ3 8:5132Punt17–14
PITQ3 7:321189Turnover17–14
KCQ3 1:403-1Field goal17–17
PITQ3 0:05427Punt17–17
KCQ4 12:515-1Turnover17–17
PITQ4 11:03527Touchdown24–17
KCQ4 8:35891Touchdown24–24
PITQ4 4:5453Punt24–24
KCQ4 2:1737Punt24–24
PITQ4 1:47518Punt24–24
KCQ4 0:2210End of half24–24
PITOT852Punt24–24
KCOT476Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger32/4239832
Charlie Batch1/21700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall21803.80
Willie Parker6244.00
Mike Wallace155.00
Ben Roethlisberger144.00
Mewelde Moore210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward10141281
Heath Miller78951
Santonio Holmes710860
Mike Wallace23470
Rashard Mendenhall45361
Willie Parker11110
Matt Spaeth1170
David Johnson1150

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel15/3024820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles17583.40
Bobby Wade188.00
Kolby Smith133.00
Matt Cassel1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Chambers461190
Lance Long23370
Leonard Pope23261
Mark Bradley15220
Bobby Wade36170
Jamaal Charles2581

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.44