2009 · Week 11

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

9·35

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -10.5

Total

47

Model margin

+7.8est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapVikings
  • -0.107EPA / play+0.085
  • 40.9%Success rate45.1%
  • -0.082EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.130
  • 7.2%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -1.58CPOE+5.77
  • 34.0%Third-down rate45.4%
  • 46.1%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
  • 1.38Points / drive2.31
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. MIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13MIN @ SEA0–26SEA
2024 · W16MIN @ SEA27–24MIN
2021 · W3SEA @ MIN17–30MIN
2020 · W5MIN @ SEA26–27SEA
2019 · W13MIN @ SEA30–37SEA
2018 · W14MIN @ SEA7–21SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ MIN10–9SEA
2015 · W13SEA @ MIN38–7SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–MIN
SEAQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
MINQ1 14:023-6Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:10313Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:191253Punt0–0
SEAQ1 2:23518Punt0–0
MINQ1 0:061179Touchdown0–7
SEAQ2 10:05510Punt0–7
MINQ2 7:29741Touchdown0–14
SEAQ2 4:5700Touchdown0–14
MINQ2 4:46634Touchdown0–21
SEAQ2 1:12319Punt0–21
MINQ2 0:3211End of half0–21
MINQ3 15:00417Punt0–21
SEAQ3 12:1239Punt0–21
MINQ3 10:451289Touchdown0–28
SEAQ3 4:08647Field goal3–28
MINQ3 0:431175Touchdown3–35
SEAQ4 10:21772Touchdown9–35
MINQ4 8:05411Punt9–35
SEAQ4 5:35637Turnover9–35
MINQ4 4:2237Punt9–35
SEAQ4 3:253-14Punt9–35
MINQ4 2:30331End of half9–35

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck19/2623101
Seneca Wallace0/3000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett891.11
Matt Hasselbeck242.00
Justin Griffith100.00
Seneca Wallace1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Burleson681000
Justin Forsett89800
T.J. Houshmandzadeh46360
Deion Branch12150
John Carlson0400

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre22/2521340
Tarvaris Jackson6/87710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson24823.40
Chester Taylor11736.60
Tarvaris Jackson252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sidney Rice67892
Percy Harvin55791
Visanthe Shiancoe810781
Adrian Peterson45160
Chester Taylor22120
Bernard Berrian22111
Greg Lewis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.55.7%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.66%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.4%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.82