Closing spread
MIN -10.5
Total
47
Model margin
+7.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play+0.085
- 40.9%Success rate45.1%
- -0.082EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.130
- 7.2%Explosive rate10.4%
- -1.58CPOE+5.77
- 34.0%Third-down rate45.4%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
- 1.38Points / drive2.31
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. MIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 19/26 | 231 | 0 | 1 |
| Seneca Wallace | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Burleson | 6 | 8 | 100 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 8 | 9 | 80 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/25 | 213 | 4 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 6/8 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 24 | 82 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 11 | 73 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 6 | 7 | 89 | 2 |
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 5 | 79 | 1 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 8 | 10 | 78 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Greg Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.4%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.82