Closing spread
GB -6
Total
42
Model margin
+4.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play+0.124
- 37.0%Success rate44.9%
- -0.055EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.018
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.69CPOE+3.74
- 29.4%Third-down rate47.0%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.54Points / drive2.22
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 16/33 | 227 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 7 | 59 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 6 | 12 | 108 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 6 | 77 | 1 |
| Isaac Bruce | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| Jason Hill | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 32/45 | 344 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 21 | 129 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 5 | 7 | 126 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 6 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 7 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| James Jones | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.88