2009 · Week 11

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

24·30

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

GB -6

Total

42

Model margin

+4.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Packers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapPackers
  • -0.067EPA / play+0.124
  • 37.0%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.055EPA / dropback+0.213
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.018
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.69CPOE+3.74
  • 29.4%Third-down rate47.0%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.22
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 13–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12SF @ GB10–38GB
2023 · playoffsGB @ SF21–24SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ GB13–10SF
2021 · W3GB @ SF30–28GB
2020 · W9GB @ SF34–17GB
2019 · playoffsGB @ SF20–37SF
2019 · W12GB @ SF8–37SF
2018 · W6SF @ GB30–33GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–GB
GBQ1 15:00869Field goal0–3
SFQ1 10:11551Field goal3–3
GBQ1 7:39973Field goal3–6
SFQ1 2:2631Punt3–6
GBQ1 1:21824Punt3–6
SFQ2 12:4033Punt3–6
GBQ2 11:06478Touchdown3–13
SFQ2 8:473-3Punt3–13
GBQ2 7:171082Touchdown3–20
SFQ2 2:2735Punt3–20
GBQ2 1:40736Field goal3–23
SFQ3 15:00950Turnover on downs3–23
GBQ3 11:23418Punt3–23
SFQ3 9:40778Touchdown10–23
GBQ3 7:28726Punt10–23
SFQ3 4:1437Punt10–23
GBQ3 2:16726Punt10–23
SFQ4 13:3110Turnover10–23
GBQ4 13:23411Touchdown10–30
SFQ4 11:05324Touchdown17–30
GBQ4 10:3732Punt17–30
SFQ4 8:26768Touchdown24–30
GBQ4 5:56743End of half24–30

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith16/3322731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore7598.40
Josh Morgan188.00
Alex Smith122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis6121081
Michael Crabtree46771
Isaac Bruce14200
Frank Gore3691
Jason Hill1180
Josh Morgan1350

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers32/4534420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant211296.11
Brandon Jackson4164.00
Aaron Rodgers7131.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings571261
Brandon Jackson67650
Jermichael Finley710540
Donald Driver57400
James Jones45220
Jordy Nelson33211
Ryan Grant23160
Donald Lee0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.88