2009 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

10·36

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -10

Total

47

Model margin

+6.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.085
  • 39.6%Success rate45.1%
  • -0.064EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.130
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +0.30CPOE+5.77
  • 37.3%Third-down rate45.4%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
  • 1.57Points / drive2.31
  • 3.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
MINQ1 15:00740Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 11:3439Punt0–0
MINQ1 9:3038Punt0–0
CHIQ1 8:3939Punt0–0
MINQ1 6:481597Touchdown0–7
CHIQ2 14:56654Touchdown7–7
MINQ2 12:12880Touchdown7–14
CHIQ2 8:0600Field goal7–14
MINQ2 7:593-3Field goal7–17
CHIQ2 7:02957Turnover7–17
MINQ2 2:45415Punt7–17
CHIQ2 1:47533Turnover7–17
MINQ2 0:57875Touchdown7–24
CHIQ2 0:1715End of half7–24
CHIQ3 15:003-7Field goal10–24
MINQ3 12:441382Field goal10–27
CHIQ3 7:4539Punt10–27
MINQ3 6:121281Field goal10–30
CHIQ4 13:3633Punt10–30
MINQ4 11:44943Touchdown10–36
CHIQ4 6:353-3Punt10–36
MINQ4 5:21523End of half10–36

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler18/2314712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte8273.40
Jay Cutler3165.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen78450
Matt Forte44340
Johnny Knox12241
Devin Hester12200
Earl Bennett35140
Devin Aromashodu1160
Kahlil Bell1140

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre32/4839230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson25853.41
Percy Harvin24522.50
Chester Taylor4338.30
Tarvaris Jackson3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin681011
Sidney Rice610890
Bernard Berrian69740
Chester Taylor67511
Visanthe Shiancoe59511
Adrian Peterson24180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.4%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.59