Closing spread
MIN -10
Total
47
Model margin
+6.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.085
- 39.6%Success rate45.1%
- -0.064EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.4%
- +0.30CPOE+5.77
- 37.3%Third-down rate45.4%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
- 1.57Points / drive2.31
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 18/23 | 147 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 7 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 1 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 32/48 | 392 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 25 | 85 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 45 | 22.5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 6 | 8 | 101 | 1 |
| Sidney Rice | 6 | 10 | 89 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 6 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 6 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 5 | 9 | 51 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.59