2009 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

34·12

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

GB -11

Total

48

Model margin

-5.6est.

DET perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.124EPA / play-0.169
  • 44.9%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.213EPA / dropback-0.183
  • -0.018EPA / rush-0.144
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +3.74CPOE-6.85
  • 47.0%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.11
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
GBQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–0
DETQ1 14:53617Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 13:041464Missed field goal0–7
DETQ1 4:39730Turnover0–7
GBQ1 1:20474Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 14:54617Punt7–7
GBQ2 11:521271Field goal10–7
DETQ2 6:1235Turnover10–7
GBQ2 4:42947Field goal13–7
DETQ2 0:5979Turnover on downs13–7
DETQ3 15:0023Turnover13–7
GBQ3 14:0646Turnover13–7
DETQ3 12:3432Punt13–7
GBQ3 11:06890Touchdown20–7
DETQ3 6:38736Missed field goal20–7
GBQ3 3:03556Touchdown27–7
DETQ3 0:3837Punt27–7
GBQ4 14:4431Punt27–7
DETQ4 12:25774Turnover on downs27–7
GBQ4 10:052-1Safety27–9
DETQ4 9:181144Field goal27–12
GBQ4 5:0139Punt33–12
DETQ4 3:5510Opp touchdown34–12
DETQ4 3:47523Turnover34–12
GBQ4 2:1635Punt34–12
DETQ4 0:1515End of half34–12

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers28/3934830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant20613.00
Brandon Jackson6142.30
Aaron Rodgers155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Driver7101421
Greg Jennings46530
Ryan Grant34420
James Jones44351
Jermichael Finley36250
Donald Lee45221
Jordy Nelson12190
Korey Hall22100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford20/4321314

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith18432.40
Matthew Stafford3217.00
Aaron Brown155.00
Maurice Morris144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Northcutt25510
Kevin Smith47460
Casey Fitzsimmons57380
Will Heller35230
Bryant Johnson13170
Maurice Morris22160
Brandon Pettigrew11120
Calvin Johnson212101
Aaron Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -113.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.3%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

34.4%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-8.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.60