Closing spread
GB -11
Total
48
Model margin
-5.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.124EPA / play-0.169
- 44.9%Success rate39.2%
- +0.213EPA / dropback-0.183
- -0.018EPA / rush-0.144
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- +3.74CPOE-6.85
- 47.0%Third-down rate35.8%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 2.22Points / drive1.11
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 28/39 | 348 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 20 | 61 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 7 | 10 | 142 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| James Jones | 4 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 4 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Korey Hall | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 20/43 | 213 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 18 | 43 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Casey Fitzsimmons | 5 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 2 | 12 | 10 | 1 |
| Aaron Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-8.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.60