Closing spread
SD -13
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SD are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 19/31 | 178 | 1 | 1 |
| Brodie Croyle | 1/2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 14 | 93 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kolby Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 7 | 8 | 70 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Lance Long | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Kolby Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Cottam | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.34
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.