Closing spread
SD -13
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutAndy AllemanGKnee· DNP
- OutDantrell SavageRBAnkle· DNP
- OutJustin RogersLBThigh· DNP
- QuestionableDavid HerronLBKnee· Full
- QuestionableMike VrabelLBKnee· Limited
- ProbableKolby SmithRBAnkle· Full
Chargers
- DoubtfulLuis CastilloDECalf· DNP
- QuestionableNick HardwickCAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableShawne MerrimanLBFoot· DNP
- ProbableMike ScifresPleft Groin· Full
- ProbableShaun PhillipsLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableTravis JohnsonDEGroin· Full
- ProbableVincent JacksonWRRibs· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. SD are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 14:00 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:48 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:32 | 6 | 12 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:48 | 7 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 4:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 3:25 | 7 | 45 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q2 14:06 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 10:46 | 3 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| KC | Q2 10:05 | 6 | 45 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 7:04 | 8 | 56 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| KC | Q2 2:52 | 1 | -11 | Opp touchdown | 7–28 |
| KC | Q2 2:32 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 7–28 |
| LAC | Q2 0:25 | 2 | 21 | End of half | 7–28 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 7–28 |
| LAC | Q3 13:45 | 3 | 7 | Touchdown | 7–35 |
| KC | Q3 12:58 | 8 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–35 |
| LAC | Q3 9:45 | 7 | 42 | Field goal | 14–38 |
| KC | Q3 4:27 | 9 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 14–38 |
| LAC | Q3 1:47 | 7 | 32 | Turnover | 14–38 |
| KC | Q4 14:02 | 3 | 5 | Safety | 14–40 |
| LAC | Q4 12:45 | 11 | 65 | Field goal | 14–43 |
| KC | Q4 5:08 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–43 |
| LAC | Q4 3:25 | 5 | 18 | End of half | 14–43 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 19/31 | 178 | 1 | 1 |
| Brodie Croyle | 1/2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 14 | 93 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kolby Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 7 | 8 | 70 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Lance Long | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Kolby Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Cottam | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.34
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.