Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 14/25 | 102 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 22 | 130 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Louis Rankin | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Burleson | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Louis Rankin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
6.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.43
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.