Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Seahawks
- QuestionableJulius JonesRBChest· Limited
- QuestionableRed BryantDTKnee· Limited
- ProbableCory ReddingDEKnee· Limited
- ProbableChris SpencerCThumb· Full
- ProbableCraig TerrillDTShoulder· Full
- ProbableDeon GrantSWrist· Full
Rams
- OutMarc BulgerQBKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulJason SmithTConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableMike KarneyRBNeck· DNP
- QuestionableRichie IncognitoGFoot· DNP
- QuestionableSteven JacksonRBBack· DNP
- ProbableChris ChamberlainLBConcussion· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:38 | 5 | 46 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:27 | 8 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 7:54 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 6:26 | 8 | 30 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 3:21 | 11 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q2 13:34 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 12:02 | 8 | 29 | Punt | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q2 7:44 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 5:39 | 10 | 44 | Opp touchdown | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 1:38 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 14–10 |
| SEA | Q3 12:18 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LA | Q3 10:47 | 5 | 12 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| SEA | Q3 7:54 | 10 | 64 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| LA | Q3 3:37 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 17–10 |
| SEA | Q3 1:18 | 7 | 44 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| LA | Q4 13:57 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 24–10 |
| SEA | Q4 12:21 | 5 | 31 | Field goal | 27–10 |
| LA | Q4 9:24 | 12 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 27–10 |
| SEA | Q4 5:51 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 27–10 |
| LA | Q4 2:50 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 27–17 |
| SEA | Q4 0:44 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 14/25 | 102 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 22 | 130 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Louis Rankin | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Burleson | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Louis Rankin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
6.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.43
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.