2009 · Week 12 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
PHI -9.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.047EPA / play+0.046
- 41.0%Success rate43.1%
- +0.023EPA / dropback+0.086
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.028
- 7.1%Explosive rate10.4%
- +1.16CPOE+0.05
- 39.7%Third-down rate37.2%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.38Points / drive2.04
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 22/37 | 231 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rock Cartwright | 15 | 38 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Quinton Ganther | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Kelly | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 4 | 9 | 43 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 4 | 9 | 28 | 1 |
| Rock Cartwright | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Quinton Ganther | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 21/35 | 260 | 1 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 17 | 76 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Eldra Buckley | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Avant | 5 | 6 | 94 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 5 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 2 | 41 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.53