2009 · Week 13

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

17·30

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

48

Model margin

-0.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.085EPA / play-0.026
  • 45.1%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.143
  • 10.4%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +5.77CPOE+3.71
  • 45.4%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 68.8%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.75
  • 1.6%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 10–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. ARI are 5-7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13ARI @ MIN22–23MIN
2022 · W8ARI @ MIN26–34MIN
2021 · W2MIN @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W6ARI @ MIN17–27MIN
2016 · W11ARI @ MIN24–30MIN
2015 · W14MIN @ ARI20–23ARI
2012 · W7ARI @ MIN14–21MIN
2011 · W5ARI @ MIN10–34MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00217Turnover0–0
MINQ1 14:121047Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 9:47643Punt7–0
MINQ1 6:0532Punt7–6
ARIQ1 4:5212Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 4:4932Punt7–7
ARIQ1 2:311560Punt7–7
MINQ2 10:0737Punt7–7
ARIQ2 8:34258Touchdown7–14
MINQ2 7:42962Field goal10–14
ARIQ2 1:55672Touchdown10–21
MINQ2 1:14615Punt10–21
ARIQ2 0:1200End of half10–21
MINQ3 15:00735Turnover10–21
ARIQ3 12:19936Field goal10–24
MINQ3 7:45513Turnover10–24
ARIQ3 5:10432Field goal10–27
MINQ3 3:19936Punt10–27
ARIQ4 13:4930Punt10–27
MINQ4 12:07512Punt10–27
ARIQ4 9:521079Field goal10–30
MINQ4 4:18984Touchdown17–30
ARIQ4 1:2000End of half17–30

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre30/4527522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Percy Harvin22211.00
Chester Taylor5214.20
Adrian Peterson13191.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin67791
Sidney Rice716720
Adrian Peterson67460
Bernard Berrian57360
Chester Taylor44280
Visanthe Shiancoe24141

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner22/3228530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower6508.30
Chris Wells13282.20
Steve Breaston11919.00
Jason Wright188.00
Kurt Warner3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald8121431
Anquan Boldin79982
Early Doucet22150
Steve Breaston1280
Tim Hightower1380
Ben Patrick1170
Jason Wright1140
LaRod Stephens-Howling1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.10