Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
48
Model margin
-0.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play-0.026
- 45.1%Success rate45.3%
- +0.239EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.143
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.9%
- +5.77CPOE+3.71
- 45.4%Third-down rate36.7%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 2.31Points / drive1.75
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. ARI are 5-7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 30/45 | 275 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 13 | 19 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 6 | 7 | 79 | 1 |
| Sidney Rice | 7 | 16 | 72 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 6 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 2 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 22/32 | 285 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 13 | 28 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 12 | 143 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 7 | 9 | 98 | 2 |
| Early Doucet | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Ben Patrick | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.10