Closing spread
PIT -14.5
Total
37
Model margin
+2.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. PIT are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/24 | 278 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 20 | 103 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Willie Parker | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 8 | 9 | 149 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 6 | 7 | 77 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 1 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Limas Sweed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.44
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.