Closing spread
PHI -4
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play+0.041
- 43.1%Success rate43.4%
- +0.086EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.036
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.05CPOE-1.75
- 37.2%Third-down rate42.8%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 2.04Points / drive1.97
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. ATL are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 14/25 | 238 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 2/2 | 48 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eldra Buckley | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 6 | 83 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 2 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Redman | 23/44 | 235 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 11 | 18 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 9 | 20 | 104 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 8 | 13 | 72 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.81
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.25