2009 · Week 13

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

34·7

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Chris Redman

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

PHI -4

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapFalcons
  • +0.046EPA / play+0.041
  • 43.1%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.086EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.036
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.05CPOE-1.75
  • 37.2%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.97
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. ATL are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2ATL @ PHI22–21ATL
2021 · W1PHI @ ATL32–6PHI
2019 · W2PHI @ ATL20–24ATL
2018 · W1ATL @ PHI12–18PHI
2017 · playoffsATL @ PHI10–15PHI
2016 · W10ATL @ PHI15–24PHI
2015 · W1PHI @ ATL24–26ATL
2012 · W8ATL @ PHI30–17ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:53939Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 9:3300Touchdown3–0
PHIQ1 9:25422Touchdown10–0
ATLQ1 8:28925Punt10–0
PHIQ1 3:16771Missed field goal10–0
ATLQ2 15:00622Punt10–0
PHIQ2 13:02537Punt10–0
ATLQ2 10:2733Punt10–0
PHIQ2 9:28556Field goal13–0
ATLQ2 8:10439Punt13–0
PHIQ2 6:393-3Punt13–0
ATLQ2 5:211224Turnover on downs13–0
PHIQ2 0:1711End of half13–0
PHIQ3 15:001280Touchdown20–0
ATLQ3 8:081143Opp touchdown27–0
ATLQ3 3:39835Turnover27–0
PHIQ4 14:48545Touchdown34–0
ATLQ4 12:3130Punt34–0
PHIQ4 11:28732Punt34–0
ATLQ4 5:271399Touchdown34–7

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb14/2523810
Mike Vick2/24810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eldra Buckley8334.10
Donovan McNabb2178.50
Mike Vick4174.31
LeSean McCoy620.30
Reggie Brown1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin46830
Reggie Brown24640
Jason Avant35360
LeSean McCoy34240
Brent Celek24161

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Redman23/4423512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerious Norwood11181.60
Eric Weems188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White9201041
Tony Gonzalez813720
Jerious Norwood24240
Brian Finneran11140
Marty Booker1340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.81
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.25