Closing spread
SF -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play-0.107
- 37.0%Success rate40.9%
- -0.055EPA / dropback-0.082
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.150
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.2%
- -2.69CPOE-1.58
- 29.4%Third-down rate34.0%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
- 1.54Points / drive1.38
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 27/45 | 310 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 6 | 9 | 111 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 6 | 12 | 60 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 6 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 25/34 | 198 | 2 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1/1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 20 | 67 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Burleson | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Louis Rankin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 5 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.88