2009 · Week 13 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

17·20

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 35°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SF -1

Total

41.5

Model margin

-1.9est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.067EPA / play-0.107
  • 37.0%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.055EPA / dropback-0.082
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.150
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -2.69CPOE-1.58
  • 29.4%Third-down rate34.0%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.38
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:5836Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:081-2Turnover0–0
SFQ1 12:57719Turnover on downs0–0
SEAQ1 10:0333Punt0–0
SFQ1 8:26552Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 6:163-7Punt7–0
SEAQ1 4:34313Touchdown7–7
SFQ1 3:48640Punt7–7
SEAQ1 0:461287Touchdown7–14
SFQ2 10:06477Touchdown14–14
SEAQ2 7:40519Punt14–14
SFQ2 5:3037Punt14–14
SEAQ2 4:00525Punt14–14
SFQ2 1:0336Punt14–14
SEAQ2 0:3736End of half14–14
SFQ3 15:003-2Punt14–14
SEAQ3 13:1038Punt14–14
SFQ3 11:4034Punt14–14
SEAQ3 9:3136Punt14–14
SFQ3 7:46525Punt14–14
SEAQ3 4:5039Punt14–14
SFQ3 3:2239Punt14–14
SEAQ3 1:43625Punt14–14
SFQ4 13:05676Turnover14–14
SEAQ4 9:11634Field goal14–17
SFQ4 5:30730Field goal17–17
SEAQ4 2:57831Punt17–17
SFQ4 0:5137Punt17–17
SEAQ4 0:21335Field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith27/4531020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore9252.80
Josh Morgan12020.00
Delanie Walker177.00
Alex Smith111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis691111
Michael Crabtree612600
Josh Morgan68561
Frank Gore58370
Delanie Walker34280
Brandon Jones12180
Jason Hill0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck25/3419820
Seneca Wallace1/1700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones20673.40
Matt Hasselbeck4317.80
Justin Forsett591.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Burleson57540
T.J. Houshmandzadeh57370
Deon Butler11320
Justin Griffith34250
Justin Forsett33251
Ben Obomanu11120
John Carlson1190
Deion Branch1571
Louis Rankin1170
Julius Jones55-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.0%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.88