Closing spread
CHI -9.5
Total
41
Model margin
+0.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. CHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 8/17 | 143 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 24 | 91 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Kahlil Bell | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earl Bennett | 2 | 4 | 74 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.78
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.