Closing spread
CHI -9.5
Total
41
Model margin
+0.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutJason SmithTConcussion· DNP
- OutMarc BulgerQBKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutMike KarneyRBNeck· DNP
- QuestionableSteven JacksonRBBack· DNP
- ProbableJames LaurinaitisLBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableJason BrownCKnee· Limited
- ProbableRichie IncognitoGFoot· Limited
Bears
- DoubtfulLance BriggsLBKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulOrlando PaceTGroin· DNP
- QuestionableCharles TillmanCBConcussion· Full
- QuestionableDesmond ClarkTENeck· Full
- QuestionableTommie HarrisDTKnee· Full
- ProbableAlex BrownDECalf· Full
Win probability
- Bears
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. CHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 7 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 14:09 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 11:52 | 6 | 50 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 9:43 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 6:52 | 7 | 84 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LA | Q1 3:51 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CHI | Q1 0:26 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 13:18 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CHI | Q2 11:34 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 10:37 | 4 | 8 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| CHI | Q2 8:51 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 7:30 | 13 | 88 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q2 1:14 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 3–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q3 13:55 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q3 11:59 | 5 | 4 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| CHI | Q3 8:50 | 14 | 56 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| LA | Q3 1:23 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–17 |
| CHI | Q3 0:10 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–17 |
| LA | Q4 14:01 | 6 | 20 | Field goal | 9–17 |
| CHI | Q4 10:10 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 9–17 |
| LA | Q4 8:33 | 4 | 29 | Punt | 9–17 |
| CHI | Q4 5:49 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 9–17 |
| LA | Q4 3:35 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 9–17 |
| CHI | Q4 3:29 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 9–17 |
| LA | Q4 1:50 | 8 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 9–17 |
| CHI | Q4 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 8/17 | 143 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 24 | 91 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Kahlil Bell | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earl Bennett | 2 | 4 | 74 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.78
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.