Closing spread
ARI -4
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.026EPA / play-0.067
- 45.3%Success rate37.0%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.055
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.087
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.1%
- +3.71CPOE-2.69
- 36.7%Third-down rate29.4%
- 73.5%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.75Points / drive1.54
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 16/29 | 178 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 15 | 79 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early Doucet | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/35 | 144 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 25 | 167 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Glen Coffee | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 10 | 67 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 7 | 34 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Glen Coffee | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.12