2009 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

9·24

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

ARI -4

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge map49ers
  • -0.026EPA / play-0.067
  • 45.3%Success rate37.0%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback-0.055
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.087
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +3.71CPOE-2.69
  • 36.7%Third-down rate29.4%
  • 73.5%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.54
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SF
SFQ1 15:001320Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 9:0231Punt0–0
SFQ1 7:59638Punt0–0
ARIQ1 4:4412Turnover0–0
SFQ1 4:3928Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 3:53219Turnover0–7
SFQ1 2:5138Field goal0–10
ARIQ1 0:33951Turnover0–10
SFQ2 12:21426Punt0–10
ARIQ2 9:5436Punt0–10
SFQ2 8:14833Missed field goal0–10
ARIQ2 4:17419Turnover0–10
SFQ2 2:45773Touchdown0–17
ARIQ2 0:52315Turnover0–17
SFQ2 0:0729End of half0–17
ARIQ3 15:00844Punt0–17
SFQ3 9:4030Punt0–17
ARIQ3 7:54730Field goal3–17
SFQ3 5:46418Turnover3–17
ARIQ3 3:23743Touchdown9–17
SFQ4 14:03532Punt9–17
ARIQ4 11:4515Turnover9–17
SFQ4 11:35416Touchdown9–24
ARIQ4 9:223-3Punt9–24
SFQ4 7:39940Punt9–24
ARIQ4 2:41113Turnover9–24
SFQ4 2:2629End of half9–24

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner16/2917802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells15795.31
Tim Hightower231.50
LaRod Stephens-Howling133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Early Doucet23410
Anquan Boldin57400
Chris Wells11240
LaRod Stephens-Howling34230
Larry Fitzgerald25220
Steve Breaston16150
Tim Hightower22130
Jason Wright0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith19/3514422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore251676.71
Glen Coffee6162.70
Alex Smith420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree510671
Vernon Davis37341
Josh Morgan35140
Frank Gore23100
Jason Hill11100
Glen Coffee1270
Delanie Walker1320
Brandon Jones0100
Alex Smith11-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.12