2009 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

21·14

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

GB -4

Total

41

Model margin

-3.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.124EPA / play-0.089
  • 44.9%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.213EPA / dropback-0.064
  • -0.018EPA / rush-0.135
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +3.74CPOE+0.30
  • 47.0%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.57
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0034Punt6–0
GBQ1 13:23162Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 13:12519Punt7–0
GBQ1 9:401243Field goal10–0
CHIQ1 3:3510Turnover10–0
GBQ1 3:191036Field goal13–0
CHIQ2 13:0332Punt13–0
GBQ2 11:56520Punt13–0
CHIQ2 8:101390Touchdown13–7
GBQ2 1:48430Turnover13–7
CHIQ2 0:0800End of half13–7
GBQ3 15:00419Turnover13–7
CHIQ3 12:48656Touchdown13–14
GBQ3 9:35636Punt13–14
CHIQ3 6:03935Punt13–14
GBQ3 1:1538Punt13–14
CHIQ3 0:17415Turnover13–14
GBQ4 13:3137Touchdown21–14
CHIQ4 12:39711Punt21–14
GBQ4 9:42649Missed field goal21–14
CHIQ4 6:05417Punt21–14
GBQ4 4:0238Punt21–14
CHIQ4 2:0746Turnover on downs21–14
GBQ4 1:0800End of half21–14

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers16/2418000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant201376.82
Ahman Green5112.20
Brandon Jackson242.00
Aaron Rodgers4-6-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermichael Finley57700
Greg Jennings35560
Brandon Jackson23200
Donald Lee22160
Donald Driver23110
Ryan Grant2270
James Jones0100
Jordy Nelson0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler23/3620922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte12514.30
Kahlil Bell492.30
Jay Cutler1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnny Knox57831
Devin Aromashodu812761
Matt Forte44170
Greg Olsen25140
Desmond Clark1180
Earl Bennett1460
Rashied Davis1150
Jason McKie1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.5%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-3.20