Closing spread
GB -4
Total
41
Model margin
-3.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.124EPA / play-0.089
- 44.9%Success rate39.6%
- +0.213EPA / dropback-0.064
- -0.018EPA / rush-0.135
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- +3.74CPOE+0.30
- 47.0%Third-down rate37.3%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.22Points / drive1.57
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 16/24 | 180 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 20 | 137 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Ahman Green | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | -6 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermichael Finley | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| James Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 23/36 | 209 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 5 | 7 | 83 | 1 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 8 | 12 | 76 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Rashied Davis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.5%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-3.20