Closing spread
NO -10
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutJabari GreerCBGroin· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutScott FujitaLBKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulMarvin MitchellLBHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulTracy PorterCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableLance MooreWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMike BellRBKnee· DNP
- ProbableBobby McCrayDEBack· Limited
- ProbableDarnell DinkinsTEFoot· Limited
- ProbableJahri EvansGToe· Limited
- ProbableJeremy ShockeyTEHamstring· Limited
- ProbableJermon BushrodTThumb· Limited
- ProbableJonathan GoodwinCAnkle· Limited
- ProbableJonathan VilmaLBKnee· Limited
- ProbableLynell HamiltonRBShoulder· Limited
- ProbablePierre ThomasRBQuadricep· Limited
- ProbableRandall GayCBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableReggie BushRBKnee· Limited
- ProbableSedrick EllisDTKnee· Limited
- ProbableUsama YoungSHip· Limited
Falcons
- OutChris HoustonCBHamstring· DNP
- OutJustin PeelleTEHead· DNP
- QuestionableHarvey DahlGAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableJonathan BabineauxDTShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableMatt RyanQBToe· DNP
- QuestionableMichael JenkinsWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMichael TurnerRBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableRoddy WhiteWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableSam BakerTElbow· Limited
- QuestionableTodd McClureCKnee· Limited
- QuestionableWill SvitekTAnkle· Limited
- ProbableChristopher OwensCBShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play+0.041
- 48.1%Success rate43.4%
- +0.231EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.036
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- +6.47CPOE-1.75
- 45.6%Third-down rate42.8%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 2.36Points / drive1.97
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 57 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 10:27 | 7 | 65 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| ATL | Q1 5:58 | 8 | 68 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| NO | Q1 0:32 | 10 | 94 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| ATL | Q2 9:43 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 10–6 |
| NO | Q2 7:22 | 14 | 69 | Touchdown | 16–6 |
| ATL | Q2 0:51 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 16–9 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 61 | Touchdown | 23–9 |
| ATL | Q3 9:11 | 6 | 90 | Touchdown | 23–16 |
| NO | Q3 6:11 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 23–16 |
| ATL | Q3 3:17 | 11 | 79 | Touchdown | 23–23 |
| NO | Q4 12:56 | 16 | 63 | Field goal | 26–23 |
| ATL | Q4 4:42 | 2 | -12 | Turnover | 26–23 |
| NO | Q4 3:53 | 6 | 17 | Turnover on downs | 26–23 |
| ATL | Q4 2:07 | 8 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 26–23 |
| NO | Q4 1:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 26–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 31/40 | 296 | 3 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Lynell Hamilton | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Meachem | 4 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 6 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 6 | 46 | 2 |
| Devery Henderson | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Darnell Dinkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Redman | 23/34 | 303 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 5 | 82 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 2 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.81
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.14