Closing spread
NO -10
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play+0.041
- 48.1%Success rate43.4%
- +0.231EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.036
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- +6.47CPOE-1.75
- 45.6%Third-down rate42.8%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 2.36Points / drive1.97
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 31/40 | 296 | 3 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Lynell Hamilton | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Meachem | 4 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 6 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 6 | 46 | 2 |
| Devery Henderson | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Darnell Dinkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Redman | 23/34 | 303 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 5 | 82 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 2 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.81
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.14