Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play+0.062
- 43.1%Success rate44.1%
- +0.086EPA / dropback+0.178
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.102
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.4%
- +0.05CPOE+2.61
- 37.2%Third-down rate42.5%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
- 2.04Points / drive2.02
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 17/26 | 275 | 2 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 1/2 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 6 | 7 | 178 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 5 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| Reggie Brown | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 27/38 | 391 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 7 | 110 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 7 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 7 | 8 | 70 | 1 |
| Domenik Hixon | 1 | 1 | 61 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.37