2009 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

45·38

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

PHI -1

Total

42.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • +0.046EPA / play+0.062
  • 43.1%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.086EPA / dropback+0.178
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.102
  • 10.4%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +0.05CPOE+2.61
  • 37.2%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
  • 2.04Points / drive2.02
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
PHIQ1 15:00662Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 11:28423Opp touchdown14–0
NYGQ1 9:401477Field goal14–3
PHIQ1 2:2731Punt14–3
NYGQ1 1:19778Touchdown14–10
PHIQ2 13:071175Field goal17–10
NYGQ2 6:42512Opp touchdown24–10
NYGQ2 4:09867Touchdown24–17
PHIQ2 1:30870Touchdown30–17
NYGQ2 0:1000Turnover30–17
NYGQ3 15:001174Touchdown30–24
PHIQ3 9:1826Turnover30–24
NYGQ3 8:28114Turnover30–24
PHIQ3 8:1136Punt30–24
NYGQ3 6:31369Touchdown30–31
PHIQ3 5:12160Touchdown37–31
NYGQ3 4:573-1Punt37–31
PHIQ3 2:4533Punt37–31
NYGQ3 1:16617Punt37–31
PHIQ4 13:121291Touchdown45–31
NYGQ4 5:481475Touchdown45–38
PHIQ4 1:3131Punt45–38
NYGQ4 0:2827Turnover45–38
PHIQ4 0:0800End of half45–38

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb17/2627521
Mike Vick1/23200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy10282.80
Mike Vick3113.71
Donovan McNabb252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson671781
Brent Celek58641
Reggie Brown24310
LeSean McCoy45260
Jason Avant0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning27/3839130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs15604.01
Ahmad Bradshaw14553.91
Eli Manning2189.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks471101
Steve Smith710740
Kevin Boss78701
Domenik Hixon11611
Ahmad Bradshaw44460
Mario Manningham24160
Brandon Jacobs1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.1%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.37