2009 · Week 15

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

31·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Daunte Culpepper

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ARI -14

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapLions
  • -0.026EPA / play-0.169
  • 45.3%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback-0.183
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.144
  • 9.9%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +3.71CPOE-6.85
  • 36.7%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 73.5%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.11
  • 3.4%Turnover rate3.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. DET are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DET @ ARI45–21DET
2024 · W3DET @ ARI20–13DET
2021 · W15ARI @ DET12–30DET
2020 · W3DET @ ARI26–23DET
2019 · W1DET @ ARI27–27Tie
2018 · W14DET @ ARI17–3DET
2017 · W1ARI @ DET23–35DET
2015 · W5ARI @ DET42–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–DET
DETQ1 15:00522Punt0–0
ARIQ1 11:5932Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:56622Punt0–0
ARIQ1 7:22636Punt0–0
ARIQ1 2:54313Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 1:373-4Turnover7–0
ARIQ1 0:31419Field goal10–0
DETQ2 13:01947Missed field goal10–0
ARIQ2 6:22656Touchdown17–0
DETQ2 3:515-13Punt17–0
ARIQ2 2:00938Turnover17–0
DETQ2 0:11220End of half17–0
ARIQ3 15:00720Punt17–0
DETQ3 11:39517Punt17–0
ARIQ3 8:4834Punt17–0
DETQ3 7:5410Turnover17–6
ARIQ3 7:4510Opp touchdown17–7
ARIQ3 7:2939Punt17–13
DETQ3 5:21164Touchdown17–14
ARIQ3 5:1034Punt17–14
DETQ3 3:36414Field goal17–17
ARIQ3 2:04875Touchdown24–17
DETQ4 13:40414Punt24–17
DETQ4 11:1249Turnover on downs24–17
ARIQ4 9:3438Punt24–17
DETQ4 8:06863Touchdown24–24
ARIQ4 3:48558Touchdown31–24
DETQ4 1:5447Turnover on downs31–24
ARIQ4 1:0600End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner23/3723321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells171106.51
Jason Wright155.00
Tim Hightower640.71
Kurt Warner2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin611721
Steve Breaston35380
Larry Fitzgerald46361
Tim Hightower66340
Ben Patrick23320
Chris Wells12130
Jason Wright0100
Early Doucet0100
LaRod Stephens-Howling0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton10/197201
Daunte Culpepper6/126401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris171267.41
Drew Stanton3103.31
Aaron Brown294.50
Daunte Culpepper144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Maurice Morris56350
Calvin Johnson36350
Dennis Northcutt22300
Bryant Johnson28110
Will Heller2380
Derrick Williams1350
Aaron Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -142.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.88
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.62