Closing spread
ARI -14
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.026EPA / play-0.169
- 45.3%Success rate39.2%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.183
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.144
- 9.9%Explosive rate7.6%
- +3.71CPOE-6.85
- 36.7%Third-down rate35.8%
- 73.5%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 1.75Points / drive1.11
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. DET are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 23/37 | 233 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 17 | 110 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 11 | 72 | 1 |
| Steve Breaston | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 6 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Ben Patrick | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 10/19 | 72 | 0 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 6/12 | 64 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 17 | 126 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Drew Stanton | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Aaron Brown | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 2 | 8 | 11 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Derrick Williams | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.88
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.62