Closing spread
TEN -4.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.010
- 45.9%Success rate40.8%
- -0.013EPA / dropback+0.042
- +0.023EPA / rush-0.026
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.24CPOE-2.63
- 48.8%Third-down rate41.0%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.82Points / drive1.79
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. TEN are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 29/46 | 349 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Pat White | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 5 | 96 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 4 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 5 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 4 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Joey Haynos | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 14/27 | 236 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 29 | 104 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Justin Gage | 2 | 3 | 43 | 2 |
| Bo Scaife | 5 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.35