2009 · Week 15

Final / OT

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

24·27

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TEN -4.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapTitans
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.010
  • 45.9%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.013EPA / dropback+0.042
  • +0.023EPA / rush-0.026
  • 7.2%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +0.24CPOE-2.63
  • 48.8%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.79
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. TEN are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4TEN @ MIA31–12TEN
2023 · W14TEN @ MIA28–27TEN
2021 · W17MIA @ TEN3–34TEN
2018 · W1TEN @ MIA20–27MIA
2017 · W5TEN @ MIA10–16MIA
2016 · W5TEN @ MIA30–17TEN
2015 · W6MIA @ TEN38–10MIA
2012 · W10TEN @ MIA37–3TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–TEN
TENQ1 15:0022Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 13:57520Field goal3–0
TENQ1 11:091081Touchdown3–7
MIAQ1 6:35610Punt3–7
TENQ1 3:143-2Punt3–7
MIAQ1 2:10849Turnover3–7
TENQ2 13:52974Field goal3–10
MIAQ2 9:26975Field goal6–10
TENQ2 3:20573Touchdown6–17
MIAQ2 1:47845Turnover6–17
TENQ2 0:2510End of half6–17
MIAQ3 15:00410Punt6–17
TENQ3 11:54655Touchdown6–24
MIAQ3 8:58419Punt6–24
TENQ3 7:5529Turnover6–24
MIAQ3 7:1137Field goal9–24
TENQ3 5:33413Punt9–24
MIAQ3 3:31552Turnover9–24
TENQ3 1:44833Punt9–24
MIAQ4 12:161280Touchdown16–24
TENQ4 7:41620Punt16–24
MIAQ4 4:361090Touchdown24–24
TENQ4 1:3437Punt24–24
MIAQ4 0:5627End of half24–24
MIAOT34Turnover24–24
TENOT3-1Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne29/4634913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams19804.21
Chad Henne2115.50
Brian Hartline11010.00
Pat White242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline25960
Davone Bess48580
Greg Camarillo510460
Ted Ginn22380
Anthony Fasano46361
Joey Haynos33200
Ricky Williams3690

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young14/2723631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson291043.60
Vince Young22412.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Johnson23550
Justin Gage23432
Bo Scaife58400
Nate Washington15321
Lavelle Hawkins11320
Kenny Britt22320
LenDale White1220
Alge Crumpler0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.35