2009 · Week 15 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play-0.047
- 44.1%Success rate41.0%
- +0.178EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.168
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.1%
- +2.61CPOE+1.16
- 42.5%Third-down rate39.7%
- 56.6%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 2.02Points / drive1.38
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/26 | 268 | 3 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3/4 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 9 | 61 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Gartrell Johnson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 2 | 3 | 66 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 3 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 3 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 5 | 7 | 40 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1 |
| Domenik Hixon | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 15/28 | 192 | 1 | 2 |
| Todd Collins | 2/4 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 36 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Quinton Ganther | 10 | 21 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Davis | 5 | 9 | 65 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 2 | 51 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Quinton Ganther | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Malcolm Kelly | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.31