2009 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

45·12

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NYG -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.062EPA / play-0.047
  • 44.1%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.178EPA / dropback+0.023
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.168
  • 10.4%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +2.61CPOE+1.16
  • 42.5%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 56.6%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.38
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
NYGQ1 15:001680Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 5:473-3Punt7–0
NYGQ1 4:211163Touchdown14–0
WASQ2 14:2146Punt14–0
NYGQ2 12:45827Field goal17–0
WASQ2 8:053-5Punt17–0
NYGQ2 6:41456Touchdown24–0
WASQ2 4:36625Punt24–0
NYGQ2 1:5536Punt24–0
WASQ2 1:02655Turnover24–0
WASQ3 15:00981Touchdown24–6
NYGQ3 10:30777Touchdown31–6
WASQ3 6:2110Opp touchdown38–6
WASQ3 6:07977Touchdown38–12
NYGQ3 0:09549Touchdown45–12
WASQ4 12:48940Turnover45–12
NYGQ4 8:52417Punt45–12
WASQ4 6:21726Turnover on downs45–12
NYGQ4 3:23314End of half45–12

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning19/2626830
David Carr3/42700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw9616.82
Brandon Jacobs16523.30
Gartrell Johnson242.00
Hakeem Nicks1-1-1.00
David Carr2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks23660
Kevin Boss35570
Mario Manningham34441
Steve Smith57401
Ahmad Bradshaw34290
Derek Hagan11231
Domenik Hixon23210
Bear Pascoe1190
Travis Beckum1140
Brandon Jacobs1120

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell15/2819212
Todd Collins2/45700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jason Campbell23618.00
Marcus Mason4256.30
Quinton Ganther10212.11
Rock Cartwright177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Fred Davis59651
Santana Moss36550
Rock Cartwright12510
Antwaan Randle El36250
Marcus Mason22250
Quinton Ganther22190
Malcolm Kelly1190
Mike Sellers0100
Devin Thomas0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.31