2009 · Week 15

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

13·27

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

41

Model margin

+2.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapEagles
  • -0.067EPA / play+0.046
  • 37.0%Success rate43.1%
  • -0.055EPA / dropback+0.086
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.028
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -2.69CPOE+0.05
  • 29.4%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.04
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 9–7 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. PHI are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsSF @ PHI23–19SF
2023 · W13SF @ PHI42–19SF
2022 · playoffsSF @ PHI7–31PHI
2021 · W2SF @ PHI17–11SF
2020 · W4PHI @ SF25–20PHI
2017 · W8SF @ PHI10–33PHI
2014 · W4PHI @ SF21–26SF
2011 · W4SF @ PHI24–23SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00550Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 12:47638Field goal3–7
PHIQ1 9:2935Punt3–7
SFQ1 8:2734Turnover3–7
PHIQ1 7:2734Punt3–7
SFQ1 5:50513Punt3–7
PHIQ1 3:2744Turnover on downs3–7
SFQ1 1:17321Turnover3–7
PHIQ2 14:511079Touchdown3–14
SFQ2 9:49516Turnover3–14
PHIQ2 7:25819Field goal3–17
SFQ2 4:25519Punt3–17
PHIQ2 2:09755Turnover3–17
SFQ2 0:4427Turnover3–17
PHIQ2 0:26121Field goal3–20
SFQ2 0:0200End of half3–20
SFQ3 15:00741Field goal6–20
PHIQ3 10:0210Turnover6–20
SFQ3 9:40635Touchdown13–20
PHIQ3 6:12631Punt13–20
SFQ3 2:50549Punt13–20
PHIQ3 0:06889Touchdown13–27
SFQ4 11:323-8Punt13–27
PHIQ4 10:42639Punt13–27
SFQ4 7:351126Turnover on downs13–27
PHIQ4 3:45629End of half13–27

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith20/3717713

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore161076.70
Alex Smith111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Morgan78611
Vernon Davis38430
Delanie Walker34280
Michael Crabtree47260
Frank Gore35190
Jason Hill0300

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb21/3630612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy9485.31
DeSean Jackson199.00
Donovan McNabb451.31
Mike Vick221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson6101401
Brent Celek46730
Jason Avant35440
Reggie Brown14130
LeSean McCoy3380
Kevin Curtis1270
Alex Smith1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.27