Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
41
Model margin
+2.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play+0.046
- 37.0%Success rate43.1%
- -0.055EPA / dropback+0.086
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.028
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.4%
- -2.69CPOE+0.05
- 29.4%Third-down rate37.2%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.54Points / drive2.04
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. PHI are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/37 | 177 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 107 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Morgan | 7 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 21/36 | 306 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 6 | 10 | 140 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Kevin Curtis | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.27