2009 · Week 16 · Division

Final / OT

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

30·36

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 26°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

MIN -9

Total

41

Model margin

-1.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • +0.085EPA / play-0.089
  • 45.1%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback-0.064
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.135
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +5.77CPOE+0.30
  • 45.4%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 68.8%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.57
  • 1.6%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:5738Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:59856Field goal0–3
MINQ1 7:241035Turnover0–3
CHIQ1 2:17836Field goal0–6
MINQ2 13:23626Punt0–6
CHIQ2 9:08776Touchdown0–13
MINQ2 5:5636Punt0–13
CHIQ2 4:473-5Punt0–13
MINQ2 3:1437Punt0–13
CHIQ2 1:48759Field goal0–16
MINQ3 15:00520Punt0–16
CHIQ3 12:54518Punt0–16
MINQ3 10:04559Touchdown6–16
CHIQ3 8:17515Touchdown6–23
MINQ3 6:301073Touchdown13–23
CHIQ3 1:183-7Turnover13–23
MINQ3 0:03640Field goal16–23
CHIQ4 12:1069Punt16–23
MINQ4 9:55879Touchdown23–23
CHIQ4 5:49221Touchdown23–30
MINQ4 4:551468Touchdown30–30
CHIQ4 0:1600End of half30–30
CHIOT441Missed field goal30–30
MINOT3-14Punt30–30
CHIOT33Punt30–30
MINOT216Turnover30–36
CHIOT139Touchdown30–36

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre26/4032120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson24943.92
Chester Taylor8293.60
Percy Harvin100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bernard Berrian35580
Sidney Rice68561
Adrian Peterson36430
Visanthe Shiancoe44401
Percy Harvin48400
Greg Lewis11270
Chester Taylor22260
Jimmy Kleinsasser23220
Jeff Dugan1190

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler20/3527341

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte21743.50
Kahlil Bell4215.30
Jay Cutler3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Aromashodu791501
Greg Olsen36471
Desmond Clark57391
Earl Bennett37351
Rashied Davis1190
Jason McKie0100
Johnny Knox0300
Matt Forte11-70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -92.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.7%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.61