Closing spread
MIN -9
Total
41
Model margin
-1.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play-0.089
- 45.1%Success rate39.6%
- +0.239EPA / dropback-0.064
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.135
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.4%
- +5.77CPOE+0.30
- 45.4%Third-down rate37.3%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.31Points / drive1.57
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 26/40 | 321 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 24 | 94 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Chester Taylor | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Berrian | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 6 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 4 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jeff Dugan | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 20/35 | 273 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Aromashodu | 7 | 9 | 150 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Desmond Clark | 5 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 3 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Rashied Davis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.61