Closing spread
TEN -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- QuestionableJacques CesaireDEElbow· Limited
- QuestionableKevin BurnettLBNeck· Full
- QuestionableNick HardwickCAnkle· Full
- ProbableShawne MerrimanLBFoot· DNP
- ProbableLegedu NaaneeWRFoot· Full
- ProbableMike ScifresPleft Groin· Full
- ProbableTravis JohnsonDEGroin· Full
Titans
- OutKeith BulluckLBKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutTroy KropogTCalf· DNP
- QuestionableNicholas HarperCBShoulder· Full
- ProbableCraig StevensTEConcussion· Full
- ProbableKyle Vanden BoschDENeck· Full
- ProbableNate WashingtonWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableTony BrownDTKnee· Full
Win probability
- Titans
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 3-9-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 11:41 | 7 | 52 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 8:12 | 15 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q1 1:16 | 8 | 45 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 12:49 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| TEN | Q2 8:46 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| LAC | Q2 6:33 | 8 | 37 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| TEN | Q2 3:13 | 12 | 87 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–10 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–10 |
| LAC | Q3 13:31 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 28–10 |
| TEN | Q3 9:49 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 28–10 |
| LAC | Q3 8:22 | 7 | 65 | Touchdown | 35–10 |
| TEN | Q3 4:52 | 5 | 14 | Turnover | 35–10 |
| LAC | Q3 2:56 | 6 | 32 | Touchdown | 42–10 |
| TEN | Q4 14:56 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 42–10 |
| LAC | Q4 11:46 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 42–10 |
| TEN | Q4 8:48 | 2 | 33 | Touchdown | 42–17 |
| LAC | Q4 8:02 | 8 | 49 | End of half | 42–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 8/21 | 89 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 21 | 142 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Gage | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.61
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.