Closing spread
GB -13.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+9.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play+0.124
- 40.9%Success rate44.9%
- -0.082EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.018
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- -1.58CPOE+3.74
- 34.0%Third-down rate47.0%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.38Points / drive2.22
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. GB are 12-4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 19/37 | 198 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deion Branch | 5 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 4 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Deon Butler | 1 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 12/23 | 237 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 4/6 | 36 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 16 | 97 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Ahman Green | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 7 | 111 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 3 | 4 | 80 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Korey Hall | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| James Jones | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.49