2009 · Week 16

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

10·48

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 18°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -13.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+9.5est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPackers
  • -0.107EPA / play+0.124
  • 40.9%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.082EPA / dropback+0.213
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.018
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -1.58CPOE+3.74
  • 34.0%Third-down rate47.0%
  • 46.1%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.38Points / drive2.22
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–6 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. GB are 12-4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15GB @ SEA30–13GB
2021 · W10SEA @ GB0–17GB
2019 · playoffsSEA @ GB23–28GB
2018 · W11GB @ SEA24–27SEA
2017 · W1SEA @ GB9–17GB
2016 · W14SEA @ GB10–38GB
2015 · W2SEA @ GB17–27GB
2014 · playoffsGB @ SEA22–28SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–GB
GBQ1 15:004-8Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:18931Turnover0–0
GBQ1 8:50435Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 6:343-8Punt0–7
GBQ1 5:055-1Punt0–7
SEAQ1 3:4031Punt0–7
GBQ1 2:38568Touchdown0–14
SEAQ1 0:23971Turnover0–14
GBQ2 12:0335Punt0–14
SEAQ2 11:05968Field goal3–14
GBQ2 7:12467Touchdown3–21
SEAQ2 5:3633Punt3–21
GBQ2 4:371079Field goal3–24
SEAQ3 15:003-1Turnover3–24
GBQ3 14:07747Touchdown3–31
SEAQ3 10:1332Turnover3–31
GBQ3 9:19662Touchdown3–38
SEAQ3 5:271141Turnover on downs3–38
GBQ3 0:28842Field goal3–41
SEAQ4 10:48510Punt3–41
GBQ4 8:58515Touchdown3–48
SEAQ4 6:39655Touchdown10–48
GBQ4 4:1538Punt10–48
SEAQ4 2:26718Turnover on downs10–48
GBQ4 0:5100End of half10–48

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck19/3719814

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett14705.00
Julius Jones14392.80
Matt Hasselbeck166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deion Branch59530
T.J. Houshmandzadeh48510
Julius Jones67510
John Carlson22241
Deon Butler18150
Justin Forsett1240

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers12/2323710
Matt Flynn4/63600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant16976.12
Ahman Green8293.61
Brandon Jackson5204.02
Aaron Rodgers199.00
Matt Flynn2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings471110
Jermichael Finley34800
Donald Driver36330
Brandon Jackson33191
Jordy Nelson11170
Korey Hall1370
James Jones1360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.56.8%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%2.6%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

73.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+9.49