Closing spread
ARI -16
Total
44
Model margin
+2.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutJason SmithTConcussion· DNP
- OutLeonard LittleDEKnee· DNP
- OutMarc BulgerQBKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutQuincy ButlerCBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableSteven JacksonRBBack· DNP
- LimitedRon BartellCBHip
Cardinals
- OutNeil RackersKright Groin· DNP
- QuestionableBen PatrickTEHead· DNP
- QuestionableBryant McFaddenCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableSean MoreyWRHead· DNP
- QuestionableWill DavisLBKnee· Limited
- ProbableDominique Rodgers-CromartieCBToe· Full
- ProbableKenny IwebemaDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableLarry FitzgeraldWRKnee· Full
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:07 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:16 | 5 | 8 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 8:08 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 4:22 | 9 | 36 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q2 15:00 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q2 12:13 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q2 10:20 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 6:48 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q2 4:36 | 13 | 79 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–17 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| LA | Q3 12:50 | 5 | 35 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q3 10:43 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q3 9:30 | 2 | 9 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q3 8:16 | 4 | 34 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q3 6:05 | 4 | 7 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| LA | Q3 4:32 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–24 |
| ARI | Q3 2:15 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 7–24 |
| LA | Q3 0:14 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 7–24 |
| ARI | Q4 14:25 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–24 |
| LA | Q4 12:22 | 6 | 20 | Field goal | 10–24 |
| ARI | Q4 8:36 | 9 | 46 | Punt | 10–24 |
| LA | Q4 4:01 | 4 | 32 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| ARI | Q4 2:59 | 2 | 12 | Touchdown | 10–31 |
| LA | Q4 2:44 | 8 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 10–31 |
| ARI | Q4 1:32 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 24/38 | 313 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 8 | 10 | 116 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 4 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 10 | 48 | 1 |
| Early Doucet | 2 | 2 | 43 | 1 |
| Chris Wells | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.29
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.