2009 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

37·23

Lions

Detroit

QB Daunte Culpepper

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

CHI -4

Total

44

Model margin

+2.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.169
  • 39.6%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.064EPA / dropback-0.183
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.144
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +0.30CPOE-6.85
  • 37.3%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.11
  • 3.2%Turnover rate3.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
CHIQ1 15:001054Field goal3–0
DETQ1 9:4935Turnover3–0
CHIQ1 9:033-1Punt3–0
DETQ1 8:03424Punt3–0
CHIQ1 5:2837Punt3–0
DETQ1 4:07634Field goal3–3
CHIQ1 1:01744Field goal6–3
DETQ2 12:59639Punt6–3
CHIQ2 9:0530Punt6–3
DETQ2 6:30742Touchdown6–10
CHIQ2 2:591081Touchdown13–10
DETQ2 0:1100End of half13–10
DETQ3 15:00516Turnover on downs13–10
CHIQ3 12:58739Touchdown20–10
DETQ3 10:053-5Punt20–10
CHIQ3 8:4449Punt20–10
DETQ3 6:01742Field goal20–13
CHIQ3 1:50510Punt20–13
DETQ4 14:48863Touchdown20–20
CHIQ4 9:37687Touchdown27–20
DETQ4 7:20754Field goal27–23
CHIQ4 4:38680Touchdown34–23
DETQ4 2:5700Field goal34–23
CHIQ4 2:4938Field goal37–23
DETQ4 1:09536End of half37–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler22/3627640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte161016.30
Kahlil Bell11444.00
Jay Cutler155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen58941
Devin Hester34750
Devin Aromashodu58462
Earl Bennett36270
Matt Forte37230
Desmond Clark2271
Jason McKie1140

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper23/3426221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris16654.10
Aaron Brown3217.00
Daunte Culpepper492.30
Calvin Johnson144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson610861
Bryant Johnson46421
Maurice Morris56410
Will Heller23300
Aaron Brown33190
Dennis Northcutt1370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.1%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.88
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.13