Closing spread
CHI -4
Total
44
Model margin
+2.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.169
- 39.6%Success rate39.2%
- -0.064EPA / dropback-0.183
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.144
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.6%
- +0.30CPOE-6.85
- 37.3%Third-down rate35.8%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 1.57Points / drive1.11
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 22/36 | 276 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 16 | 101 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 8 | 94 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 3 | 4 | 75 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 5 | 8 | 46 | 2 |
| Earl Bennett | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 23/34 | 262 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 10 | 86 | 1 |
| Bryant Johnson | 4 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.88
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.13