Closing spread
CAR -10
Total
41
Model margin
+15.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.058
- 48.1%Success rate40.6%
- +0.231EPA / dropback-0.092
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.022
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.9%
- +6.47CPOE-3.62
- 45.6%Third-down rate37.2%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 2.36Points / drive1.39
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 15/29 | 102 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynell Hamilton | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 17 | 28 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynell Hamilton | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Darnell Dinkins | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 9 | 12 | 0 |
| Tory Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kyle Eckel | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 14/23 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 16 | 125 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Mike Goodson | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 7 | 10 | 85 | 0 |
| Dwayne Jarrett | 5 | 5 | 68 | 1 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charly Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
84.9%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+13.07
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+15.41