2009 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Mark Brunell

10·23

Panthers

Carolina

QB Matt Moore

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 30°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -10

Total

41

Model margin

+15.4est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.058
  • 48.1%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.231EPA / dropback-0.092
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.022
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.9%
  • +6.47CPOE-3.62
  • 45.6%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.39
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
CARQ1 15:00268Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 14:0834Punt0–7
CARQ1 12:29728Punt0–7
NOQ1 9:06834Punt0–7
CARQ1 4:343-6Punt0–7
NOQ1 2:5033Punt0–7
CARQ1 1:4934Punt0–7
NOQ1 0:21735Field goal3–7
CARQ2 11:13932Turnover on downs3–7
NOQ2 6:5833Punt3–7
CARQ2 4:59514Punt3–7
NOQ2 2:3037Punt3–7
CARQ2 1:431085Touchdown3–14
NOQ2 0:1300Turnover3–17
CARQ2 0:0500Turnover3–17
NOQ3 15:0035Punt3–17
CARQ3 14:01554Punt3–17
NOQ3 11:183-3Punt3–17
CARQ3 10:1834Field goal3–20
NOQ3 8:06213Turnover3–20
CARQ3 7:1738Field goal3–23
NOQ3 5:051150Touchdown10–23
CARQ3 0:0739Punt10–23
NOQ4 14:0838Punt10–23
CARQ4 12:2937Punt10–23
NOQ4 10:24615Punt10–23
CARQ4 7:2934Punt10–23
NOQ4 5:16739Turnover10–23
CARQ4 2:28317End of half10–23

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell15/2910201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lynell Hamilton10484.81
Reggie Bush5357.00
Mike Bell17281.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lynell Hamilton35380
Darnell Dinkins44200
Devery Henderson13180
Robert Meachem29120
Tory Humphrey1170
Kyle Eckel1260
Marques Colston1230
Reggie Bush0100
Mike Bell22-20

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore14/2316210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart161257.81
Mike Goodson13443.40
Matt Moore1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Muhsin Muhammad710850
Dwayne Jarrett55681
Jeff King1330
Dante Rosario0100
Jonathan Stewart0100
Kenny Moore0100
Charly Martin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +103.3%5.2%1.9%2.6%4.2%3.2%3.7%3.3%3.3%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

84.9%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+13.07
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+15.41