Closing spread
SF -7
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
4.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
49ers
- OutJoe NedneyKleft Hamstring· DNP
- OutNate ClementsCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableIsaac BruceWRAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableJoe StaleyTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableRicky SchmittKleft Groin· DNP
- DNPAubrayo FranklinDTNot Injury Related
- DNPJustin SmithDTNot Injury Related
- ProbableShaun HillQBBack· Limited
- ProbableChilo RachalGKnee· Full
- ProbableGlen CoffeeRBThigh· Full
Rams
- OutMark SetterstromGtricep· DNP
- OutQuincy ButlerCBKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulJason SmithTConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableLeonard LittleDEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableParis LenonLBToe· Limited
- QuestionableSteven JacksonRBBack· DNP
- LimitedChris LongDEHamstring
- ProbableDonnie AveryWRThigh· Limited
- ProbableJames LaurinaitisLBKnee· Limited
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 11:35 | 9 | 38 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:32 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 4:21 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 2:19 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 0:50 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q2 14:49 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q2 13:21 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q2 10:14 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q2 7:46 | 1 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| SF | Q2 7:12 | 2 | 2 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| SF | Q2 6:18 | 1 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| LA | Q2 5:57 | 1 | 5 | Field goal | 0–0 |
| LA | Q2 5:45 | 2 | 20 | Field goal | 0–0 |
| LA | Q2 4:55 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SF | Q2 4:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 2:18 | 3 | 24 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 1:33 | 7 | 16 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q3 13:22 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SF | Q3 12:01 | 8 | 88 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LA | Q3 7:58 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–3 |
| SF | Q3 6:48 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q3 5:17 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–3 |
| SF | Q3 3:10 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q4 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–3 |
| SF | Q4 13:09 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q4 11:17 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| SF | Q4 9:11 | 3 | 82 | Touchdown | 14–6 |
| LA | Q4 7:29 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 14–6 |
| SF | Q4 6:19 | 4 | 51 | Touchdown | 21–6 |
| LA | Q4 4:05 | 6 | 4 | Turnover on downs | 21–6 |
| SF | Q4 2:42 | 4 | 17 | Touchdown | 28–6 |
| LA | Q4 2:16 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 28–6 |
| SF | Q4 1:48 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 28–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 17/28 | 222 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 23 | 107 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Glen Coffee | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 6 | 10 | 89 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.05
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.