Closing spread
NO -4
Total
54
Model margin
+1.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.118
- 45.1%Success rate48.1%
- +0.239EPA / dropback+0.231
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.028
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- +5.77CPOE+6.47
- 45.4%Third-down rate45.6%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 2.31Points / drive2.36
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. NO are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 28/46 | 310 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 25 | 122 | 4.9 | 3 |
| Chester Taylor | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Berrian | 9 | 12 | 102 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 4 | 6 | 83 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 4 | 11 | 43 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 17/31 | 197 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Lynell Hamilton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devery Henderson | 4 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| David Thomas | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.42