2009 · CON

Final / OT

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

28·31

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NO -4

Total

54

Model margin

+1.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSaints
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.118
  • 45.1%Success rate48.1%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback+0.231
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.028
  • 10.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +5.77CPOE+6.47
  • 45.4%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 68.8%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.36
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 11–7 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. NO are 8-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5MIN @ NO23–13MIN
2023 · W10NO @ MIN19–27MIN
2022 · W4MIN @ NO28–25MIN
2020 · W16MIN @ NO33–52NO
2019 · playoffsMIN @ NO26–20MIN
2018 · W8NO @ MIN30–20NO
2017 · playoffsNO @ MIN24–29MIN
2017 · W1NO @ MIN19–29MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–NO
MINQ1 15:001080Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 9:35771Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 6:301148Touchdown14–7
NOQ1 2:1139Punt14–7
MINQ2 15:0034Punt14–7
NOQ2 13:21764Touchdown14–14
MINQ2 10:30733Punt14–14
NOQ2 6:1233Punt14–14
MINQ2 4:4233Punt14–14
NOQ2 3:4239Punt14–14
MINQ2 1:52615Punt14–14
MINQ2 1:1326Turnover14–14
NOQ2 0:5625End of half14–14
NOQ3 15:00437Touchdown14–21
MINQ3 12:56985Touchdown21–21
NOQ3 7:3536Punt21–21
MINQ3 6:29941Turnover21–21
NOQ3 1:5937Punt21–21
MINQ4 15:0025Turnover21–21
NOQ4 14:1037Touchdown21–28
MINQ4 12:39770Turnover21–28
NOQ4 9:3739Punt21–28
MINQ4 7:57839Touchdown28–28
NOQ4 4:5838Punt28–28
MINQ4 2:37846Turnover28–28
NOQ4 0:0720End of half28–28
NOOT1122Field goal28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre28/4631012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson251224.93
Chester Taylor6284.70
Percy Harvin4153.80
Brett Favre100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bernard Berrian9121020
Visanthe Shiancoe46830
Sidney Rice411431
Percy Harvin58380
Chester Taylor36180
Adrian Peterson22140
Jimmy Kleinsasser11120

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees17/3119730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas14614.41
Reggie Bush781.10
Drew Brees100.00
Lynell Hamilton1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devery Henderson46391
Pierre Thomas23381
Reggie Bush24331
David Thomas36320
Marques Colston25220
Robert Meachem23190
Jeremy Shockey1290
Lance Moore1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.42