Closing spread
NE -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.191EPA / play-0.019
- 48.7%Success rate41.8%
- +0.265EPA / dropback+0.015
- +0.096EPA / rush-0.056
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- +2.77CPOE-4.95
- 48.3%Third-down rate40.2%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate43.6%
- 2.76Points / drive1.69
- 0.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/36 | 248 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hernandez | 6 | 6 | 101 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 10 | 38 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 7 | 38 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 21/30 | 220 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 11 | 76 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 15 | 52 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 7 | 9 | 115 | 1 |
| Braylon Edwards | 5 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4 | 7 | 26 | 1 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.06