Closing spread
NE -14
Total
42.5
Model margin
+8.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bills
- OutPaul PoslusznyLBKnee· DNP
- ProbableAndy LevitreGNeck· Full
- ProbableCary HarrisSHamstring· Full
- ProbableKeith EllisonLBKnee· Full
Patriots
- OutNick KaczurTBack· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutTerrence WheatleyCBFoot· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableTaylor PriceWRAnkle· DNP
- LimitedJulian EdelmanWRFoot
- ProbableFred TaylorRBToe· Full
- ProbableTom BradyQBright Shoulder· Full
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.106EPA / play+0.191
- 40.1%Success rate48.7%
- -0.089EPA / dropback+0.265
- -0.132EPA / rush+0.096
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.2%
- -1.94CPOE+2.77
- 38.1%Third-down rate48.3%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.49Points / drive2.76
- 3.6%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 59 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 9:48 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q1 5:14 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q1 1:35 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q2 14:47 | 6 | 19 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| NE | Q2 10:46 | 4 | 19 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| BUF | Q2 9:36 | 7 | 37 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| NE | Q2 6:13 | 6 | 76 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| BUF | Q2 2:58 | 8 | 55 | Field goal | 16–14 |
| NE | Q2 0:24 | 2 | 42 | Field goal | 16–17 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 74 | Touchdown | 22–24 |
| BUF | Q3 13:11 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 23–24 |
| NE | Q3 12:58 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 23–24 |
| BUF | Q3 11:34 | 5 | 43 | Missed field goal | 23–24 |
| NE | Q3 8:42 | 13 | 59 | Touchdown | 23–31 |
| BUF | Q3 1:21 | 4 | 49 | Turnover | 23–31 |
| NE | Q4 14:45 | 14 | 65 | Touchdown | 23–38 |
| BUF | Q4 8:19 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 30–38 |
| NE | Q4 4:08 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 30–38 |
| BUF | Q4 3:04 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 30–38 |
| NE | Q4 2:57 | 4 | 32 | End of half | 30–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 20/28 | 247 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 13 | 79 | 6.1 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roscoe Parrish | 5 | 6 | 83 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 3 | 4 | 66 | 1 |
| Lee Evans | 5 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stupar | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/27 | 252 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 16 | 98 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 42 | 14.0 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hernandez | 6 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 3 | 43 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 3 | 42 | 2 |
| Julian Edelman | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Matthew Slater | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.42