Closing spread
NYJ -5.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.106
- 41.8%Success rate40.1%
- +0.015EPA / dropback-0.089
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.132
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.1%
- -4.95CPOE-1.94
- 40.2%Third-down rate38.1%
- 43.6%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.69Points / drive1.49
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 14/24 | 161 | 2 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 1/1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1/1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 19 | 133 | 7.0 | 2 |
| Shonn Greene | 22 | 117 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braylon Edwards | 4 | 7 | 86 | 1 |
| Dustin Keller | 4 | 6 | 28 | 2 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Ben Hartsock | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 12/27 | 128 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 7 | 74 | 10.6 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Nelson | 4 | 4 | 75 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 3 | 7 | 31 | 1 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| David Martin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.09