2010 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

38·14

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 51°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

NYJ -5.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBills
  • -0.019EPA / play-0.106
  • 41.8%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.015EPA / dropback-0.089
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.132
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -4.95CPOE-1.94
  • 40.2%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 43.6%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.69Points / drive1.49
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BUF
NYJQ1 15:00963Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 10:4200Missed field goal7–0
NYJQ1 10:37527Missed field goal7–0
BUFQ1 7:2435Punt7–0
NYJQ1 5:4630Punt7–0
BUFQ1 4:52420Punt7–0
NYJQ1 3:3139Punt7–0
BUFQ1 2:1430Punt7–0
NYJQ1 1:071787Field goal10–0
BUFQ2 6:46415Punt10–0
NYJQ2 4:01366Touchdown17–0
BUFQ2 2:32764Touchdown17–7
NYJQ2 0:3319End of half17–7
BUFQ3 15:00511Punt17–7
NYJQ3 11:311155Touchdown24–7
BUFQ3 6:0910Turnover24–7
NYJQ3 5:56323Touchdown31–7
BUFQ3 4:3636Punt31–7
NYJQ3 3:24235Touchdown38–7
BUFQ3 2:4045Punt38–7
NYJQ3 1:27412Punt38–7
BUFQ4 14:4330Punt38–7
NYJQ4 14:15524Punt38–7
BUFQ4 11:33574Touchdown38–14
NYJQ4 9:10621Punt38–14
BUFQ4 4:283-3Punt38–14
NYJQ4 3:33412Punt38–14
BUFQ4 0:48326End of half38–14

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez14/2416120
Mark Brunell1/1700
Brad Smith1/1310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaDainian Tomlinson191337.02
Shonn Greene221175.30
Joe McKnight4123.00
Brad Smith2105.00
Mark Sanchez100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braylon Edwards47861
Dustin Keller46282
Jerricho Cotchery35260
LaDainian Tomlinson34220
Ben Hartsock1270

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick12/2712820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Fitzpatrick77410.60
Fred Jackson3217.00
C.J. Spiller2115.50
Marshawn Lynch482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Nelson44750
Steve Johnson37311
Roscoe Parrish1470
Lee Evans1660
David Martin1141
C.J. Spiller1240
Fred Jackson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.1%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.09