Closing spread
NE -4
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.191
- 41.8%Success rate48.7%
- +0.015EPA / dropback+0.265
- -0.056EPA / rush+0.096
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.2%
- -4.95CPOE+2.77
- 40.2%Third-down rate48.3%
- 43.6%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.69Points / drive2.76
- 1.9%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 17/33 | 164 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 7 | 12 | 72 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 2 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/29 | 326 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 18 | 72 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 4 | 104 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 7 | 7 | 80 | 1 |
| Deion Branch | 3 | 7 | 64 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 3 | 5 | 51 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.84