Closing spread
NE -4
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Jets
- OutJim LeonhardSCalf· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableDamien WoodyTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDwight LoweryCBConcussion· Limited
- ProbableBrad SmithWRBack· Full
- ProbableCalvin PaceLBFoot· Full
- ProbableDavid HarrisLBCalf· Full
- ProbableDrew ColemanCBGroin· Full
- ProbableJerricho CotcheryWRGroin· Full
- ProbableMark SanchezQBCalf· Full
- ProbableMarquice ColeCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableMatt SlausonGKnee· Full
- ProbableNick MangoldCShoulder· Full
- ProbableShaun EllisDEKnee· Full
- ProbableSione PouhaDTAnkle· Full
- ProbableWayne HunterTBack· Full
Patriots
- QuestionableJonathan WilhiteCBHip· DNP
- QuestionableMike WrightDEConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableMyron PryorDEBack· DNP
- ProbableTom BradyQBright Shoulder· Limited
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.191
- 41.8%Success rate48.7%
- +0.015EPA / dropback+0.265
- -0.056EPA / rush+0.096
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.2%
- -4.95CPOE+2.77
- 40.2%Third-down rate48.3%
- 43.6%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.69Points / drive2.76
- 1.9%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 43–14 since 1999
NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 52 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 10:57 | 11 | 39 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 6:50 | 7 | 21 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| NYJ | Q1 4:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NE | Q1 2:31 | 4 | 32 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| NYJ | Q1 1:01 | 7 | 46 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| NE | Q2 12:14 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| NYJ | Q2 8:15 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 3–24 |
| NE | Q2 6:08 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–24 |
| NYJ | Q2 3:56 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–24 |
| NE | Q2 2:19 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 3–24 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:03 | 7 | 31 | End of half | 3–24 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 59 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| NE | Q3 9:15 | 8 | 93 | Touchdown | 3–31 |
| NYJ | Q3 4:40 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 3–31 |
| NE | Q3 3:50 | 8 | 94 | Touchdown | 3–38 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:57 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 3–38 |
| NE | Q4 12:46 | 6 | 28 | Touchdown | 3–45 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:20 | 9 | 51 | Turnover on downs | 3–45 |
| NE | Q4 5:49 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 3–45 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:30 | 4 | 22 | End of half | 3–45 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 17/33 | 164 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 7 | 12 | 72 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 2 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/29 | 326 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 18 | 72 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 4 | 104 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 7 | 7 | 80 | 1 |
| Deion Branch | 3 | 7 | 64 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 3 | 5 | 51 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.84