Closing spread
NE -7
Total
46.5
Model margin
-3.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.191EPA / play-0.106
- 48.7%Success rate40.1%
- +0.265EPA / dropback-0.089
- +0.096EPA / rush-0.132
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- +2.77CPOE-1.94
- 48.3%Third-down rate38.1%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 2.76Points / drive1.49
- 0.9%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/27 | 140 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 19 | 104 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 13 | 93 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 7 | 54 | 2 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 18/37 | 251 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 13 | 81 | 6.2 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naaman Roosevelt | 4 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 5 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 5 | 12 | 54 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.9%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.44