Closing spread
NE -7
Total
46.5
Model margin
-3.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- DoubtfulDan ConnollyGConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableAaron HernandezTEHip· Limited
- QuestionableBrandon DeaderickDEShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableJames SandersSFlu· DNP
- QuestionableJermaine CunninghamLBCalf· Limited
- QuestionableMike WrightDEConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableMyron PryorDEBack· Limited
- QuestionableRon BraceDTConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableTully Banta-CainLBGroin· Limited
- ProbableDeion BranchWRKnee· Limited
- ProbableTom BradyQBright Shoulder· Limited
- ProbableDevin McCourtyCBRib· Full
- ProbableKyle ArringtonCBElbow· Full
Bills
- QuestionableGeoff HangartnerCKnee· Limited
- ProbableChris KelsayLBKnee· Full
- ProbableDemetress BellTKnee· Full
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.191EPA / play-0.106
- 48.7%Success rate40.1%
- +0.265EPA / dropback-0.089
- +0.096EPA / rush-0.132
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- +2.77CPOE-1.94
- 48.3%Third-down rate38.1%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 2.76Points / drive1.49
- 0.9%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 64 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 10:08 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 6:24 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 5:33 | 4 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| BUF | Q1 3:46 | 4 | 49 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| NE | Q1 1:52 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| BUF | Q2 12:27 | 10 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 14–3 |
| NE | Q2 7:32 | 9 | 52 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| BUF | Q2 3:57 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| NE | Q2 2:24 | 7 | 27 | Touchdown | 24–3 |
| BUF | Q2 0:33 | 3 | 14 | End of half | 24–3 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 24–3 |
| BUF | Q3 12:56 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 24–3 |
| NE | Q3 12:11 | 3 | 11 | Touchdown | 31–3 |
| BUF | Q3 11:27 | 5 | 45 | Turnover on downs | 31–3 |
| NE | Q3 9:27 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 31–3 |
| BUF | Q3 8:07 | 1 | 3 | Turnover | 31–3 |
| NE | Q3 8:00 | 6 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 31–3 |
| BUF | Q3 6:26 | 4 | 29 | Turnover | 31–3 |
| NE | Q3 4:53 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 31–3 |
| BUF | Q3 2:51 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 31–3 |
| NE | Q3 1:08 | 10 | 47 | Field goal | 34–3 |
| BUF | Q4 10:15 | 14 | 74 | Turnover | 34–3 |
| NE | Q4 3:31 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 34–3 |
| NE | Q4 1:51 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 34–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/27 | 140 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 19 | 104 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 13 | 93 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 7 | 54 | 2 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 18/37 | 251 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 13 | 81 | 6.2 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naaman Roosevelt | 4 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 5 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 5 | 12 | 54 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.9%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.44