2010 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Brian Brohm

7·38

Jets

New York

QB Mark Brunell

New Meadowlands Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1

Total

38

Model margin

+8.4est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJets
  • -0.106EPA / play-0.019
  • 40.1%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.089EPA / dropback+0.015
  • -0.132EPA / rush-0.056
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.94CPOE-4.95
  • 38.1%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate43.6%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.69
  • 3.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYJ
BUFQ1 15:00655Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 12:281289Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 4:58620Punt0–3
NYJQ1 1:30941Punt0–3
BUFQ2 12:36524Opp touchdown0–10
BUFQ2 9:073-1Punt0–10
NYJQ2 7:2835Punt0–10
BUFQ2 6:1630Punt0–10
NYJQ2 5:5237Punt0–10
BUFQ2 4:1539Punt0–10
NYJQ2 2:00959Touchdown0–17
BUFQ2 0:1513End of half0–17
NYJQ3 15:00310Opp touchdown7–17
NYJQ3 13:06628Punt7–17
BUFQ3 9:0434Punt7–17
NYJQ3 7:27258Touchdown7–24
BUFQ3 6:4135Punt7–24
NYJQ3 4:3135Punt7–24
BUFQ3 2:29723Turnover7–24
NYJQ4 14:1131Punt7–24
BUFQ4 11:5610Turnover7–24
NYJQ4 11:49527Touchdown7–31
BUFQ4 9:1810Turnover7–31
NYJQ4 9:02534Touchdown7–38
BUFQ4 6:45520Turnover7–38
NYJQ4 3:50525End of half7–38

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Brohm10/2310603
Levi Brown2/32401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson13352.70
C.J. Spiller351.70
Naaman Roosevelt133.00
Quinton Ganther1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson512720
Naaman Roosevelt36300
Fred Jackson11130
Paul Hubbard1380
Jonathan Stupar1270
David Martin1100
Scott Chandler0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell6/1211021
Kellen Clemens1/2600
Brad Smith1/1300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe McKnight321584.90
Brad Smith56012.00
Kellen Clemens294.51
Jerricho Cotchery1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braylon Edwards12521
Jerricho Cotchery37320
Santonio Holmes11171
Joe McKnight23150
Jeff Cumberland1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.8%5.5%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.8%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.42