Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
38
Model margin
+8.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.106EPA / play-0.019
- 40.1%Success rate41.8%
- -0.089EPA / dropback+0.015
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.056
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.94CPOE-4.95
- 38.1%Third-down rate40.2%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate43.6%
- 1.49Points / drive1.69
- 3.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Brohm | 10/23 | 106 | 0 | 3 |
| Levi Brown | 2/3 | 24 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Naaman Roosevelt | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Quinton Ganther | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 5 | 12 | 72 | 0 |
| Naaman Roosevelt | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Paul Hubbard | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stupar | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| David Martin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 6/12 | 110 | 2 | 1 |
| Kellen Clemens | 1/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe McKnight | 32 | 158 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 5 | 60 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braylon Edwards | 1 | 2 | 52 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Joe McKnight | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.8%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.42