2010 · DIV · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

28·21

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 30°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NE -9.5

Total

45

Model margin

+5.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.191
  • 41.8%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.015EPA / dropback+0.265
  • -0.056EPA / rush+0.096
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -4.95CPOE+2.77
  • 40.2%Third-down rate48.3%
  • 43.6%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 1.69Points / drive2.76
  • 1.9%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NYJQ1 15:00525Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:03856Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 7:5030Missed field goal0–0
NEQ1 5:441048Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 1:12615Punt0–3
NEQ2 13:383-4Punt0–3
NYJQ2 12:20554Touchdown7–3
NEQ2 10:2437Punt7–3
NYJQ2 8:29926Punt7–3
NEQ2 3:57718Turnover on downs7–3
NYJQ2 1:06437Touchdown14–3
NEQ2 0:3323End of half14–3
NEQ3 15:00420Punt14–3
NYJQ3 12:23520Punt14–3
NEQ3 10:0755Punt14–3
NYJQ3 7:35737Punt14–3
NEQ3 4:04885Touchdown14–11
NYJQ3 0:13575Touchdown21–11
NEQ4 13:001450Turnover on downs21–11
NYJQ4 5:1536Punt21–11
NEQ4 3:29626Field goal21–14
NYJQ4 1:57220Touchdown28–14
NEQ4 1:41759Touchdown28–21
NYJQ4 0:2400End of half28–21

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez16/2519430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene17764.51
LaDainian Tomlinson10434.30
Joe McKnight122.00
Mark Sanchez1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery57960
Braylon Edwards23521
Santonio Holmes35201
Dustin Keller35150
Shonn Greene1190
LaDainian Tomlinson2321
Ben Hartsock0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/4529921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Danny Woodhead14463.30
BenJarvus Green-Ellis9434.80
Brandon Tate11111.00
Julian Edelman11111.00
Tom Brady221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski46650
Deion Branch510591
Wes Welker79570
Danny Woodhead69520
Alge Crumpler35391
Julian Edelman11120
BenJarvus Green-Ellis23110
Aaron Hernandez1140
Brandon Tate0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.2%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+5.32