2011 · Week 1

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

21·28

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kevin Kolb

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -6.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.102EPA / play-0.077
  • 44.8%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback-0.076
  • +0.115EPA / rush-0.078
  • 12.3%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -0.04CPOE-5.82
  • 38.7%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
  • 2.08Points / drive1.38
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 14–7 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2CAR @ ARI22–27ARI
2024 · W16ARI @ CAR30–36CAR
2022 · W4ARI @ CAR26–16ARI
2021 · W10CAR @ ARI34–10CAR
2020 · W4ARI @ CAR21–31CAR
2019 · W3CAR @ ARI38–20CAR
2016 · W8ARI @ CAR20–30CAR
2015 · playoffsARI @ CAR15–49CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ARI
CARQ1 15:00512Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:27649Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 8:45380Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 7:1147Punt7–7
CARQ1 4:5935Punt7–7
ARIQ1 3:27516Punt7–7
CARQ1 0:46853Punt7–7
ARIQ2 12:10976Turnover7–7
CARQ2 7:0848Punt7–7
ARIQ2 4:19958Missed field goal7–7
CARQ2 1:03559Touchdown14–7
ARIQ2 0:0600End of half14–7
ARIQ3 15:0034Punt14–7
CARQ3 13:30627Turnover14–13
ARIQ3 10:52148Touchdown14–14
CARQ3 10:40880Touchdown21–14
ARIQ3 5:4965Punt21–14
CARQ3 3:251040Punt21–14
ARIQ4 13:01590Touchdown21–21
CARQ4 10:48632Opp touchdown21–28
CARQ4 7:15516Punt21–28
ARIQ4 5:01642Punt21–28
CARQ4 2:20965Turnover on downs21–28
ARIQ4 1:1411End of half21–28

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton24/3742221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams12302.50
Jonathan Stewart7263.70
Cam Newton8182.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith8111782
Greg Olsen46780
Brandon LaFell45700
Jeremy Shockey33510
Legedu Naanee15210
Jonathan Stewart23140
DeAngelo Williams1260
Mike Goodson1240

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb18/2730920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells18905.01
LaRod Stephens-Howling3103.30
Kevin Kolb4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Early Doucet331051
Larry Fitzgerald37620
Jeff King23611
Todd Heap23400
Andre Roberts24210
Chris Wells44120
LaRod Stephens-Howling1120
DeMarco Sampson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.2%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.58
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.17