Closing spread
ARI -6.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.077
- 44.8%Success rate41.4%
- +0.093EPA / dropback-0.076
- +0.115EPA / rush-0.078
- 12.3%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.04CPOE-5.82
- 38.7%Third-down rate32.0%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
- 2.08Points / drive1.38
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 24/37 | 422 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 8 | 11 | 178 | 2 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Legedu Naanee | 1 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 18/27 | 309 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 18 | 90 | 5.0 | 1 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early Doucet | 3 | 3 | 105 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 3 | 61 | 1 |
| Todd Heap | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| DeMarco Sampson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.58
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.17